Depression over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh may bring heavy rains to west and central India over next two days: IMD

A depression over east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh is expected to bring extremely heavy rainfall to western and central India, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and parts of Madhya Pradesh over the next two days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

The depression, which originated as a well-marked low-pressure area over central north Madhya Pradesh on Saturday, has intensified as it moved westward. It's likely to strengthen further into a deep depression over East Rajasthan within the next 12 hours and is expected to continue moving west-southwestwards. 

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By Thursday morning, it may reach the northeast Arabian Sea, off the coasts of Saurashtra, Kutch, and adjacent areas of Pakistan. As a result, extremely heavy rainfall is forecasted for West Madhya Pradesh on Sunday, Gujarat until Wednesday, Saurashtra and Kutch from Sunday to Thursday, and Konkan, Goa, and the ghat areas of central Maharashtra on Sunday and Monday, according to the IMD.

Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected across west and central India throughout the week.

On Saturday, heavy-to-very heavy rainfall was recorded in Gujarat, eastern and western Madhya Pradesh, central Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, eastern Rajasthan, and Coastal Karnataka.

Meanwhile, a low-pressure area has formed over southern Bangladesh and its surrounding areas, and it is likely to become more pronounced as it moves west-northwestwards across Gangetic West Bengal, northern Odisha, and Jharkhand over the next two days. This weather pattern is expected to result in extremely heavy rainfall over Tripura and Mizoram on Sunday, with heavy rainfall likely in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands until the end of the month.

This forecast follows relentless rains that have already battered Tripura and nine districts in Bangladesh, including Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Feni, Chattogram, Noakhali, Cumilla, and Khagrachhari. Flash floods caused by torrential rains in Bangladesh have resulted in 15 deaths and affected millions.

Despite a dry start to the southwest monsoon season, which runs from June through September, India has so far recorded 5% above normal precipitation at 690.8 mm, largely due to the emergence of La Nina conditions.

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La Nina, meaning “little girl,” is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in specific regions and typically occurs every 3-5 years. It can sometimes happen in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns. La Nina generally follows strong El Nino events, which supports the model predictions favouring La Nina this year.