IMD forecasts normal to above-normal rainfall for August, September

India is expected to receive normal to above-normal rains in August and September, thanks to developing La Nina conditions, in a boost to the country's agriculture and overall economy.

In August, monsoon rains are expected to be normal at 94-106% of the long-period average, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), said in a press conference on Thursday.

The long-term average for August is 254.9mm based on the average of 1971-2020, and for the August-September period, it is 422.8mm.

While most regions will experience above-normal rainfall in the coming months, certain areas, including Ladakh, parts of the northeastern states, and Saurashtra and Kutch, are likely to receive below-normal precipitation. 

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In the first two weeks of August, the Punjab-Haryana-Uttar Pradesh-Bihar-West Bengal belt is set to benefit from consistent showers, offering relief to cultivators who faced below-normal rainfall in the Gangetic plains in July.

Rainfall activity is expected to subside across the country after the first week of August, compared with July, the IMD noted. However, September will likely compensate for any deficits, with above-normal showers largely driven by the La Nina phenomenon, which involves periodic cooling of the Pacific Ocean's surface temperatures.

The northern parts of Maharashtra, including the Vidarbha region, are also likely to get below-normal rainfall in August, according to the IMD.

The June-September monsoon rainfall drives the bulk of India's $3 trillion economy, accounting for nearly 75% of the country's annual rains, which plays a crucial role in agriculture, replenishes reservoirs and aquifers, and helps meet power demand.

Over half of India's arable land is rain-fed, and agriculture remains one of the biggest employment generators.

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Good rains in August and September bode well for Indian farmers who rely heavily on these showers for irrigation of standing crops. 

In July, key agriculture areas in Punjab, Haryana, and the Gangetic plains received scanty showers even as most of peninsular India saw excess rains.

This year, eastern Uttar Pradesh and surrounding areas experienced inadequate rainfall in July due to the monsoon trough being positioned south of its usual path, according to Mohapatra. He explained that regions south of the trough typically receive significant rainfall, while areas to the north receive much less.

Historically, peninsular India has seen excess rainfall in July for the past five years, whereas the northern and northeastern regions have recorded below-normal rainfall during the same period for the last three years, Mohapatra clarified.

This year, there has been a notable shift in the areas experiencing extremely heavy rainfall in June and July. The west coast, from southern Karnataka to Gujarat, along with central and eastern India, bore the brunt of the heavy rains, in contrast to the Himalayan regions last year.

The weather bureau also forecast that extremely heavy rainfall would continue along the west coast in parts of Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, and Karnataka until 3 August.

Despite the rains, India has continued to grapple with high temperatures this year.

Minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most regions in August, according to the IMD. However, eastern coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, along with some parts of interior Andhra Pradesh, are forecasted to have below-normal minimum temperatures.

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July 2024 recorded the highest-ever minimum temperatures for the country since 1901, with central, eastern, and northeastern regions breaking records set over a century ago, according to IMD data.