IMD predicts ‘very heavy’ rains in Gujarat tomorrow; issues red alert for Karnataka amid Cyclone Asna scare

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted “very heavy” rains in Gujarat, while a ‘red’ alert has issued for coastal Karnataka amid the scare of rare Cyclone Asna.

The cyclone brewing over Saurashtra-Kutch region of Gujarat is a rare meteorological phenomenon in the month of August. It is expected to emerge over the Arabian Sea on Friday and travel towards the Oman coast.

The storm will be named Cyclone Asna, as suggested by Pakistan, upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm. Notably, only three cyclonic storms have developed over the Arabian Sea in August from 1891 to 2023.

IMD on Cyclone Asna

The weather agency said the deep depression over Saurashtra and Kutch is likely to move west-southwestwards and emerge over the northeast Arabian Sea off Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts and intensify into a cyclonic storm on Friday.

"Development of cyclonic storms in the month of August over the Arabian Sea is a rare activity," an IMD meteorologist told news agency PTI.

Owing to this meteorological development, “very heavy” rainfall has been predicted over Saurashtra and Kutch on August 30. While Gujarat is likely to witness the heavy rains on September 1.

An offshore trough is expected to continue from the south Gujarat coast to the north Kerala coast, which will contribute to the extensive rainfall across the western coastline, IMD said.

The regions of Konkan and Goa, as well as the ghat areas of central Maharashtra, are expected to experience very heavy rainfall from August 30 to September 5.

Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, and Mahe are expected to experience widespread light to moderate rainfall during this period. Isolated instances of extremely heavy rainfall are likely over Coastal Karnataka on August 30.

IMD alerts in upcoming days

In response to this rare occurring, the IMD has issued an orange alert for Saurashtra-Kutch, South Interior Karnataka, and Kerala on August 30.

For North Interior Karnataka, the IMD has issued an orange alert on August 31, and for Gujarat, Konkan-Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra on September 2-3.

IMD also issued an orange alert within Gujarat, specifically for the coastal districts of Jamnagar, Porbandar, and Dwarka.

Meanwhile, a ‘red alert’ has been issued for Coastal Karnataka on August 30 and an orange alert on August 31.

IMD scientist on Monsoon

Talking to news agency ANI, IMD scientist Soma Sen said the Monsoon trough is south of its normal position, currently. However, she said, there are two weather systems - one is the deep depression over Kutch coast, and the other is a low-pressure system off the north Andhra south Odisha coast.

Sen said the depression over Kutch coast is likely to intensify into a tropical cyclone within the next six hours; it is likely to move westwards away from the Indian coast. The other third factor is a low-pressure system, which has become well-marked today, off the north Andhra south Odisha coast, she said.

“Associated with these systems, the Monsoon trough is likely to be south of its normal position during the next few days,” Sen told ANI.

Accordingly, she said, the weather agency is not expecting much rainfall activity from today over Punjab, Haryana or Delhi. Delhi, she said, is in for a dry spell for the next three days.

"Thereafter, as the system moves inland, rainfall will start over the entire interior India and therefore, light to moderate rainfall is likely over Delhi..." she added.

41% districts in western zone are now cyclone hotspots

According to a Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) study, over 41 per cent of districts in the western zone are now cyclone hotspots.

The cyclones are becoming more frequent on the western coast due to climate change and the warming of the Arabian Sea, with states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan facing increasingly intense storms. 

Dr Vishwas Chitale, Senior Programme Lead, CEEW told LiveMint that while Gujarat is well-equipped with multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) and prepared to issue early warnings, investing in building climate-proof shelters is equally crucial. 

“Gujarat can significantly enhance safety during cyclones by channelling funds into constructing robust structures. Prioritising early response through well-prepared shelters will strengthen our resilience, reducing potential loss of life and property,” he said.