Has India called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff?

India Pakistan Tensions: For more than two decades, India's policy towards Pakistan has been significantly shaped by the nuclear question, influencing its strategic thinking and military doctrine.

India had managed to keep its restraint, despite serious provocations by Pakistan, which has send out terrorists on suicide missions as a matter of state policy.

In July 2016, the government released data on a string of terror strikes in India since 2005 that claimed 707 lives and left over 3,200 injured. This included the more serious ones, the November 2008 attacks on Mumbai, the series of seven train bombings in Mumbai in 2006, and several others.

It has taken one Narendra Modi to change that mindset.

In the last week, India has penetrated Pakistani air systems multiple times through drone and missile attacks, including strikes on air defence systems and targets within Pakistan, more specifically Muridke and Bawahalpur, both in the heart of Pakistani Punjab.

Reports indicate Indian missiles entered Pakistani airspace without facing resistance, allowing for deep strikes into Punjab province.

Additionally, India has claimed to have neutralised air defence radars and systems at multiple locations in Pakistan, including one in Lahore.

Says Bharat Karnad, one of India's leading conservative strategists: `` The Modi government has finally broken through the Indian state’s own system of self-deterrence, of inhibitions, by striking terrorist havens deep inside Pakistan, giving proof of its intent to physically demolish facilities and installations within Pakistan being utilised in the until-now successful use of terrorism as asymmetric warfare.’’

He adds: ``A huge psychological barrier has been breached by the Indian government. The Indian military will henceforth consider militarily engaging with Pakistan in a more frontal manner.’’

Pakistan's strategic thinking

The nuclear card has always been a prominent aspect of Pakistan's strategic thinking and a key reason for its nuclear weapons programme. Islamabad has used its nuclear capabilities to deter potential Indian aggression, both conventional and nuclear, and to prevent India from achieving a military victory.

The emergence of Pakistan as a nuclear power in 1998 prompted India to also develop its nuclear capabilities, leading to a complex strategic environment characterized by mutual deterrence and a heightened risk of escalation.

India's "No First Use" (NFU) policy, which means it will not use nuclear weapons unless its own territory is attacked, has influenced its strategic thinking and military posture.

Pakistan, unlike India, has not adopted an NFU policy, and its tactical nuclear weapons are seen by some as a means of countering India's conventional military superiority.

Interestingly, amidst this backdrop, a 2019 research paper published by Routledge is drawing renewed attention. The study predicted a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan in the year 2025, sparked by a high-casualty terror attack.

The researchers proposed that a major terrorist attack would provoke India to mobilize troops along the Line of Control (LoC), prompting a Pakistan response, which after casualties and violent exchanges would lead to rapid escalation.

Assuming both countries possess around 250 nuclear weapons each, the researchers warn of catastrophic consequences, which include

50 to 125 million immediate deaths, with major Indian and Pakistani cities completely gutted.

In Karnad’s estimation, however, Pakistan simply cannot resort to nuclear blackmail because the costs of an Indian counter strike would mean that it will cease to exist as a social entity. Crucially, the Pakistani Army knows it as well, he says.