India, Pakistan ‘were closer to going to war’, ceasefire helped but...: Foreign expert Michael Kugelman

US-based South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said on Monday that he believed that India and Pakistan relations "were at one of the lowest points in a number of decades, and they were closer to going to war than at any time since the Kargil crisis"

He noted that the "ceasefire really de-escalated things in a big way" amid heightened India-Pakistan tensions but this ceasefire could be "fragile".

In an interview with the news agency ANI, Kugelman said that the developments were quick, and the ceasefire was sudden and remarkable.

“Well, it's been quite a week, given how we saw such a major escalation in tensions so quickly over the last few days and then for there to be this very sudden ceasefire that appeared to come out of nowhere. It really is quite remarkable,” Kugelman said.

He added, “I think that the India, Pakistan relations were at one of their lowest points in a number of decades, and they were closer to going to war than at any time since the cargo crisis.”

He, however, feared that the “ceasefire” could be fragile.

"And in that sense, the ceasefire has really de-escalated things in a big way, but I think that it will be a fragile ceasefire because we know that tensions remain quite high between both countries," he said.

Michael Kugelman's comments came as India and Pakistan announced on May 10 terms of “understanding” to stop cross-border military action. However, India accused Pakistan of violating this understanding shortly after it was reached on Saturday.

The tension between India and Pakistani escalated after the Indian Armed Forces launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, targeting nine terror sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK).

Now, ahead of India-Pakistan DGMO-level talks on Monday, Defence Expert Sanjeev Srivastava on Monday termed the meeting "important," and said that the focus will be on the understanding reached between both countries and how to make it "permanent."