Monsoon to hit Kerala by 25 May, says IMD

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala within the next four to five days, much earlier than the typical onset date of 1 June. 

The IMD had earlier expected monsoon to reach Kerala by 27 May, with a model error of plus/minus four days.

The early onset would not only bring relief from scorching heat but also boost the sowing of bumper crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybean and other oilseeds.

"If it advances at current pace and other conditions remain conducive, we expect that the conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during in next 4-5 days," said a senior IMD official.

Last year, the monsoon reached the coast of Kerala on 30 May. Earlier, it hit the state on 8 June (2023), 29 May (2022), 3 June (2021), and 1 June (2020). 

Also Read: Why a bountiful monsoon matters more this year, in five charts

Southwest monsoon is vital for India’s agrarian economy, accounting for nearly 70% of annual rainfall and supporting about 51% of the country’s net sown area.

Early and above-normal monsoon forecasts are expected to benefit kharif sowing, improve reservoir levels, and support the rabi season as well. The outlook is positive for crops such as soybean, tomatoes, and onions, with acreages likely to increase.

“Earlier projections indicated above-normal rainfall (109% of long period average or LPA) for the current season. A timely and adequate monsoon will provide a much-needed boost to India’s agricultural economy,” said Sanjeev Asthana, president, The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), in a statement.

Monsoon had advanced into some parts of south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and some parts of north Andaman Sea on 13 May, two days ahead of schedule

Conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over more parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area; some parts of Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Tamil Nadu; some more parts of South & Central Bay of Bengal, Northeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeastern states, IMD said.

On 15 April, IMD said India is expected to receive an above-normal monsoon from June to September this year. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (over 104% of the LPA). The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of plus/minus 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for 1971-2020 was 87 cm.

Banking on this forecast, the Centre has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for 2025-26, up 3.8% from the 341.55 million tonnes target for 2024-25. Higher output in crops such as paddy, wheat, and maize could help the government ease export restrictions, benefiting farmers and traders.

Also Read: In charts: How has IMD’s monsoon outlook fared against reality?

Meanwhile, the IMD, in a statement, has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over the west coast, including Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Kerala, and adjoining peninsular India, during 20-26 May. Extreme heavy rains are seen over north Kerala on 20 May and over coastal and ghat areas of Karnataka on 20-21 May. 

Over the next three days, heavy to very heavy rainfall, with thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over northeast India and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are likely over Rajasthan during 20-22 May, the weather bureau said.