Monsoon progresses as per schedule, to reach Kerala by 25 May

The southwest monsoon is progressing as per the schedule and is likely to hit the Kerala coast in the next 2-3 days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

The IMD has predicted above-average monsoon rains this year, raising expectations of bumper harvests and stronger economic growth in India, which gets nearly 70% of the rain needed to irrigate crops and recharge reservoirs and aquifers from the June-September precipitation.

"The conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during next 2-3 days," IMD said in a statement. The IMD had earlier expected monsoon to reach Kerala by 27 May, with a model error of plus/minus four days. In 2024, the monsoon had reached the coast of Kerala on 30 May.

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"The conditions are favourable and the monsoon is advancing as per the schedule. If conditions remain conducive then it is likely to hit the Kerala coast by 25 May, as predicted by us," said a senior IMD official.

The early onset of monsoon would not only bring relief from the scorching heat but also boost the area under cultivation of crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybean and other oilseeds. Additionally, early and above-normal monsoon forecasts are expected to improve reservoir levels, and support the rabi season as well.

According to IMD, the conditions are also likely to become favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of South Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; some parts of Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu; some more parts South & Central Bay of Bengal, North Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeastern states during the same period.

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Meanwhile, IMD has said that a low-pressure area lies over east central Arabian Sea off south Konkan-Goa. It is likely to move nearly northwards and intensify further into a depression during the next 36 hours.

Weather forecast for different regions

South peninsular India

The IMD has predicted fairly widespread to widespread-light or moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Kerala, Karnataka during 22-28 May. It also stated that scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema and Telangana is likely during next 5 days.

West India

In West India, fairly widespread to widespread light or moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada during 22-28 and Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall are likely over Gujarat during 22-25 May.

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Northeast India

Fairly widespread to widespread light or moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph likely over Northeast India during next 7 days with isolated heavy rainfall over Assam & Meghalaya during 22nd -27th, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 22nd-25th; Arunachal Pradesh during 23rd-26th May.

East & Central India

The IMD has predicted scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds likely over West Bengal & Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha & Bihar during 22-26 May.

Northwest India

As far Northwest India is concerned, scattered to fairly widespread light or moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds likely over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorm, lightning & gusty winds likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Haryana Chandigarh, Rajasthan during 22-28th May are likely. Weather forecast for Delhi over the next five days include partly cloudy sky, light rain with thunderstorm and gusty winds.