Optimism is back but inflation casts a shadow

As many as 69% of the respondents in the urban-India survey expect their earnings to rise this year. The share is up from 50% in late 2020, and 64% in late 2021—the previous two occasions when we asked this question. The share of respondents who see a drop in earnings in the coming year stood in single digits (9%) for the first time since 2020 (see chart 1).

On job search, 42% think it is “easy" to find a job nowadays, a sharp improvement from 35% in the 2021 survey. For the first time, this is at par with the pre-pandemic job outlook recorded in the mid-2019 survey. However, note that around 54% of respondents still find a job-hunt “difficult"—a reminder that India’s jobs crisis is far from over.

The online survey is conducted twice a year by Mint in association with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think-tank Centre for Policy Research. It aims to examine the aspirations, anxieties and attitudes of India’s digital natives. The latest round, the ninth since 2018, was held in December 2022, with 9,698 respondents across 207 cities and towns. Over 42% were post-millennials (born after 1996), and 40% millennials (born between 1981 and 1996).

 

Faultlines alive

The upbeat earnings outlook comes from the expectation of getting a good pay hike (31%) and hope of landing a better job (25%). The confidence cuts across ages, genders and income groups. But not without its inequities. Women are more likely to find a job-search tough, with 56% saying so, compared with 51% men. People from smaller towns are also struggling more, as are those at the bottom of the income pyramid.

This difficulty is reflected in expectations of future earnings. Low-earners (monthly income below ₹20,000) are more likely to fear a pay cut or unchanged income (24%) than those earning in six figures (19%) (see chart 2). While 70% of male respondents see earnings rising, the share is 67% for females.

Are you one of those eyeing a job switch? The survey points to a possible churn in the job market. Around 21% of the respondents had lost their jobs in the preceding year, roughly similar to the 2021 survey. But the pandemic may have left many with a sense of burnout and introspection. With the worst behind, some are looking to take charge of matters.

Around 35% of respondents said they had switched jobs over the past year or were planning to, up from 32% in 2021 (see chart 3). Leaving a job to take time off, or planning to do so, has also become more common. On the flip side, just 25% denied having any plans to switch jobs, down from 32% in 2021—an indication that the trend of staying put at a workplace is fading away as things fall back in place.

Inflation hurts

Rising prices were the biggest challenge to purchasing power across the world in 2022. In India, retail inflation rose to multi-year highs, crossing the 7% mark in five months. To assess the impact, the survey asked respondents how their spending on nine common expense heads had changed since last year. Three in four said their monthly spending had shot up, roughly in line with the figure in 2021.

Fuel cost was the biggest pain point, with 72% saying it had risen over the past year (see chart 4). Most saw higher expenses across categories such as house rent, consumption goods and transportation. Even essential items such as education got costlier for 63% of respondents, up from 59% in the previous round of the survey.

Indians living in Tier 3 cities were more likely than others to report price rise across each expense category. Those between the ages of 26 and 41 (millennials) also struggled with price rise more than other age groups.

Meanwhile, with the 2024 national elections just over a year away, the positive vibes of the economy won’t be enough. The Indians who are struggling are more likely to be upset with the performance of the current government, the survey found. Among those who think it’s difficult to find a job, 42% rated the Centre negatively on economic growth, 65% on the employment situation, and 59% on inflation. The shares of such responses among those who find a job-search easy were starkly lower—19%, 28%, and 24% (see chart 5). All in all, Indians are recovering from the financial onslaught of the pandemic, but there’s still some distance to cover.

This is the first part of a new series about the findings of the ninth round of the survey. The next part will look at urban India’s evolving preferences on remote work. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban well-to-do netizens, with 82% respondents falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic category of consumers. For full methodology note: Click here

YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey | Part 1: Economy and jobs