Record-breaking 14-day rainfall hits NCR, with IMD predicting more wet weather

New Delhi: The National Capital Region (NCR) is witnessing the longest spell of continuous rains in 13 years, with downpours lasting 14 days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). 

More rain is expected over the next six days, showed IMD forecasts. The met department has been keeping detailed rainfall records since 2011. 

The previous record was 11 days, witnessed in September 2021, August 2012, and August 2013. Other significant streaks include nine-day spells in July 2016, August 2020, and September 2018, and eight-day spells in July 2013 and July 2015.

“Scattered rainfall is expected over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan during this week, with Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi likely to receive heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday,” IMD said on Saturday.

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The Safdarjung weather station, which tracks Delhi's weather patterns, recorded "trace" rainfall, extending a streak that began on 3 August. Between 1 and 17 August, Delhi received rainfall every day barring 3 August, with total rainfall reaching 240.2 mm, surpassing the monthly average of 233.1 mm. 

Record rains

The IMD records rainfall for a 24-hour period between 8:30 a.m. on consecutive days. Since 2011, August has exceeded its monthly average three times—in 2012 (378.8 mm), in 2013 (321.4 mm), and in 2020 (237 mm), according to IMD data.

In 2023, Delhi recorded 11 rainy days in August, with four days of continuous rainfall. In 2022, the city recorded 16 rainy days, but only three days of consecutive rainfall. In 2021, it saw 10 rainy days, including a four-day stretch, and in 2020, 18 rainy days were recorded, with nine occurring in a row.

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Following a scorching summer and an uneven start to the monsoon in June, the monsoon trough mostly bypassed the region in July. Now, Delhi-NCR is experiencing heavy rainfall.

June ended on a sultry note, with no rainfall in Delhi until the last day, when a single downpour of 228.1 mm pushed the month's total to 228% above the normal average of 74.1 mm.

In July, the national capital recorded 203.7 mm of rainfall, primarily light to moderate spells. Between 31 July and 1 August, 107.6 mm of rainfall was recorded, but since much of it began after 8:30 a.m. on 31 July, it was counted for the month of August.

Since the start of the four-month monsoon season in June, Delhi has recorded 434.2 mm of rainfall, 17% above normal.

IMD forecast

For the remaining two months (August-September), the Southwest monsoon is expected to be above normal, with September likely to see more rainfall than August.

In a press statement issued earlier this month, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director general of Meteorology, IMD, had said that August is expected to be normal at 94-106% of the long-period average, despite a break in showers from 8 August.

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This is attributed to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returning to neutral, with the cooler La Niña phase expected to develop in the latter half of the monsoon season.

The weather department noted that the formation of La Niña later this month is expected to improve rainfall prospects for August and September.

La Niña is expected to continue till February 2025 and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January), according to the APEC Climate Center (APCC). 

Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is another factor that influences the monsoon, is expected to be neutral till the end of the 2024 monsoon season.

La Niña is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures, and occurs every 3-5 years, occasionally in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, which can result in floods.

India has recorded 627 mm of rainfall since 1 June, 4% above the normal of 603.9 mm. This surplus is attributed to heavy rainfall in July and early August across south and central India.