What led to Air India plane crash? Experts weigh in on 4 possible reasons behind tragedy

Investigators are racing against time to find the cause of the deadly Air India plane crash, one of India’s worst plane crashes in a decade. India has already launched an investigation into the fatal crash of the London-bound Air India plane that plunged and hit a residential area in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, minutes after takeoff on Thursday.

All but one of the 242 passengers and crew onboard the Air India plane were killed in the crash.

With the investigation underway, several experts have weighed in on the possible reasons that could have led to the crash of the Air India plane. Here's what they said after analysing early evidence, videos and photos of the crash:

1. Flaps' position, no adequate thrust

US experts said on Thursday that the plane involved in the crash at Ahmedabad did not seem “properly configured” and that the crash appeared “surprising” at first glance.

Analysing the videos and photos of the crash, Aviation safety consultant John M Cox said the grainy images of the flight suggested that one area of inquiry was likely to be whether the slats and flaps were in the correct position as the plane attempted to climb.

“It's hard to tell but from looking at the aircraft from behind… it doesn't look like the trailing edge flaps are in the position I would have expected them to be,” he was quoted by news agency PTI as saying.

The CEO of Washington DC-based Safety Operating Systems, however, cautioned that the image quality is “not good enough to make that conclusion. It's just an area where I know that they're going to look”.

As per the initial footage, the aircraft initially climbed on a normal trajectory before it suddenly began descending.

Experts noted the plane appeared to maintain a nose-up attitude, a posture usually not associated with a normal descent. This, according to them, suggests a significant and sudden loss of engine thrust, the Hindustan Times reported.

“The image shows the airplane with the nose rising and it continuing to sink,” Cox said. “That says that the airplane is not making enough lift," he said.

He said, “The slats and flaps should be positioned so that the wing makes more lift at lower speeds.”

2. Bird strike and loss of power

Former pilot Saurabh Bhatnagar told Indian news TV channel New Delhi Television LTD that the incident appears to involve “multiple bird hits.” Bird strikes refer to a collision between a bird and an aircraft that is in flight, taking off, or landing.

Bhatnagar was quoted as saying: “It looks, prima facie, like a case of multiple bird hits wherein both the engines have lost power." He noted that the take-off was "perfect" but “the aircraft started descending, which can happen only in case the engine loses power or the aircraft stops developing lift.”

However, Sam Thomas, president of the Airline Pilots Association of India (ALPA) told HT that it was “highly unlikely” a flock of birds disabled both engines.

3. Unusual landing gear position

A report cited experts analysing why the aircraft's landing gear was not retracted. Capt Manoj Hathi, a former Air India official, told the Times of India, “It's possible that a dual engine flame-out was the reason the landing gear could not be retracted”. 

“Dual engine failure could occur due to bird ingestion or fuel contamination. Looking at the trajectory and body angle of the aircraft, it appears as if the aircraft has stalled because of loss of speed,” he reportedly said.

Former pilot Ehsan Khalid explained that the landing gear is raised as soon as the flight takes off. “Since the landing gear was down, it is possible that a loss of engine was detected beforehand... The biggest question is why the landing gear was not up....,” he said.

According to the TOI, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) said in its statement the pilots gave a MAYDAY call seconds after take-off. This information reportedly supporting the theory that a dual engine failure occurred probably after the aircraft crossed the speed beyond which a take-off cannot be safely aborted.

4. Dual engine failure is rare

Other pilots said the possibility of a dual engine failure is a rare event with about seven documented accidents in the past seven decades.

Former pilot Ehsan Khalid told the Times of India the aircraft appeared to have faced a loss of power, which could be attributed to an engine malfunction. However, he stressed that it is highly unlikely for both engines to fail simultaneously, especially due to a bird strike within such a short timeframe.

“The visuals show that the aircraft faced a loss of power... The loss of power can be due to engine malfunction, but it is very unlikely that both engines would lose power simultaneously... It is a very big engine, and it is rare that both engines lose power due to a bird hit in a one-minute duration,” he was quoted as saying.

Although just preliminary clues and theories are emerging, a definitive cause remains elusive until the government probe concludes. Professor John McDermid, of the University of York, said it was too early to know “in any detail”