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Mint Primer: Ever seen the rain? The price of a truant monsoon
Summary
- Till 25 June, the rainfall deficit was 19% of the long-period average (LPA). As per the Met office, 21 out of 36 states and Union territories have seen subnormal rains.
Despite arriving early, the annual monsoon rains have been deficient in June. The coming month is critical—any hit to kharif crop planting in July will spoil the chances of a revival in farm growth, besides pushing food prices even higher. Mint explains what is at stake.
How has the monsoon progressed?
After setting in over Kerala two days ahead of schedule on 30 May, the progress of the annual south-west monsoon has been slow. Till 25 June, the rainfall deficit was 19% of the long-period average (LPA). As per the Met office, 21 out of 36 states and Union territories have seen subnormal rains. Of these, the rainfall deficit is 60% or higher in eight—including Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Bihar, Punjab and West Bengal. June has been a story of contrast so far—while north-west and eastern India battled a prolonged heatwave leading to several deaths, some states in the north-east witnessed excess rains and floods.
How critical are the June rains?
The monsoon season (June to September) brings in 75% of India’s annual rainfall, watering crops, filling reservoirs and boosting farm income and consumer demand. June and July are critical months for planting kharif crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds and cotton. However, historically, June has contributed just about a fifth of the rains during the monsoon season. That means ample rains in the next few months can make up for the losses this month. But as always, the geographical distribution of the rains over the next few months will be critical— because aggregate numbers often hide regional imbalances.
Also read: Consumer goods makers are hopeful a ‘normal monsoon’ will heat up demand
What is the overall forecast?
The Met has forecast above-normal rains, at 106% of LPA, for the entire season. The forecaster also expects La Niña conditions—cooling of sea surface temperatures known to bring in more rains—to set in by the second half of the monsoon. This raises the risk of excess rains and floods in August and September. For now, the July rains will be critical for crop planting.
What about farm growth and incomes?
Agriculture, which contributes 15% to India’s gross domestic product, saw its growth rate plunge to 1.4% in FY24 from 4.7% in FY23. This was largely due to uneven rains hitting production of rice, pulses and cane, and perishables like fruit and vegetables. The monsoon this year is critical for farm growth rates to revive, which in turn will have a bearing on rural incomes, including wages for those dependent on casual work. Higher incomes can revive sales of consumer goods, which have been tepid for a while.
Also read: Mint Explainer | Return of La Nina and its impact on Indian monsoon, agriculture
How are food prices moving?
Food prices rose 8.7% on-year, in May, about the same as seen a month earlier. High food inflation was driven by cereals, vegetables and pulses, which rose by 8.7%, 27.3% and 17.1%, respectively. The prolonged heatwave impacted the most volatile component in the food basket—vegetables. Data from the department of consumer affairs shows prices of perishables like tomatoes, onions and potatoes are abnormally high—with annual spikes of 38%, 70% and 50% as of 24 June. Well-distributed rains can put a lid on these prices.
