Mumbai and Navi Mumbai airports have a golden opportunity. But can they grab it?

The last few days have been intense on the military side between India and Pakistan. What started as a NOTAM barring all Indian-registered aircraft and leased aircraft operated by Indian airlines from overflying Pakistan escalated to a conflict and a pause thereafter. As the military operations come to a halt, there is no word on the opening up of Pakistani airspace for Indian carriers. IndiGo cancelled a handful of flights to Central Asia, while the larger impact was on Air India, which had to plan for technical stops (for refuelling) at Vienna or Copenhagen for its flights to North America, where it has a sizable presence in both Canada and the USA.

Air India had only recently started the campaign to attract transfer passengers via Delhi, having made changes to its schedule to have the fastest connection from Sydney and Melbourne to Frankfurt and Paris via Delhi. The changes in flight times affect these connections adversely and expose the location of Delhi amid geopolitical turmoil.

Air India, then a government entity, moved its hub to Delhi from Mumbai, where it also had its iconic headquarters, and thus Delhi overtook Mumbai in terms of total traffic in 2008-09. The expanse which Delhi airport had to build more runways and a new terminal gave it a headstart as compared to landlocked Mumbai, with little or no efforts made to remove encroachments and expand to its rightful land.

Also Read: Pakistan airspace closure: Delhi airport and Air India to see maximum impact as first cancellations trickle in

The closure of Pakistani airspace is the second instance in the recent past, with the last one being in February 2019, which lasted until July that year. It happened when Pakistan closed its airspace for all aircraft destined for India or originating from India in the aftermath of the Balakot air strike. Is it time for Air India to explore options or for IndiGo to explore opportunities beyond Delhi, as it welcomes its own widebody aircraft in 2027 and until then relies on wet-leased capacity, with three widebody aircraft already in the fleet?

Is Mumbai better geographically?

Until 2008-09, Mumbai airport was the largest airport in the country. The building of T3 at Delhi airport and Air India moving its hub to Delhi led to Delhi's exponential growth, even as Mumbai grappled with limited expansion, and more importantly, two intersecting runways that could not be used simultaneously.

The closure of Pakistani airspace leads to a circuitous routing from Delhi, which is largely avoided from Mumbai, though it still takes longer to fly from Mumbai, and Air India has been forced to take fuel stops for flights to the USA from Mumbai, too. The total time for flights to Europe is almost similar as before closure from Mumbai, as compared to Delhi.

Will a move to Mumbai or a future hub in Mumbai, with higher feed routed via Mumbai, be helpful for Air India or IndiGo which is in the planning stages for establishing its widebody network, which would also rely on hub and spoke model to look for feeder traffic from the east and connect it to the west and vice versa?

But there is a problem

Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA) is undergoing a major revamp. This will involve shutting down Terminal 1 to rebuild the old structure. It has had its repercussions with the airline asking freighter aircraft to stop operations at CSMIA and instead shift to Navi Mumbai, to be operated by the same parent company, Adani Airports.

Global industry body IATA (International Air Transport Association) came out with a statement recently in support of airlines, calling out the stop of freighter operations and withdrawal of historic slots for passenger movements for next season. In what seems like strong words, IATA says, “We hope Adani Airports, as the operator of the two-airport system in Mumbai, is not using this situation to pressure airlines to move their operations to their upcoming Navi Mumbai Airport. We fear, however, that this is an example of airport “capacity gaming” which will harm aviation throughout India and beyond.”

Also Read: Two different flight paths: Air India is fortifying its domestic network while IndiGo is going big on international

How will the airport operator be able to attract more aircraft and a functional hub if it says it is facing capacity constraints currently? As if the split terminal operations challenge wasn't enough, a split airport challenge is even harder to solve and until there is capacity to grow and build a functional hub, moving or creating a hub at Mumbai airport is going to be a challenge and Navi Mumbai may be too new to explore setting up of the hub, till the last-mile connectivity issues are resolved effectively.

Tail Note

Adani Airports, which would operate both Mumbai and Navi Mumbai airports, has a golden opportunity to attract an airline to make Mumbai its hub. Jet Airways had a majority presence at Mumbai airport, but after the collapse of the airline, the airport has not had a major carrier, though both Air India and IndiGo have a large presence out of Mumbai.

What can the airport group do to sweeten the deal for the airlines to ensure that a new hub is established, and will airlines take the bait, especially in the current times of airspace closure, when Mumbai seemingly seems better than Delhi?