Pakistan may face 21% water shortage for kharif as India halts Indus Treaty, says IRSA

India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance has raised serious concerns in Pakistan. On Monday, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee expressed grave apprehension over a sudden reduction in the inflow of the Chenab River at Marala, attributed to decreased water releases by India. This shortfall could lead to a 21% water deficit in Pakistan during the early Kharif season.

Treaty Suspension and Immediate Fallout

India formally suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty on 24 April 2025, citing security concerns following the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people. The move halted data-sharing and project notifications to Pakistan, with India asserting its right to fully utilise water resources from western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

Pakistan’s Agricultural Emergency

Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned of a 21% water shortage during the early Kharif season (May–June) and 7% in late Kharif (June–September), citing reduced Chenab River flows from India.

The Chenab’s inflow at Marala headworks dropped sharply, threatening irrigation for crops like rice, cotton, and maize-critical for Pakistan’s food security. IRSA attributed the deficit to India’s reduced releases from upstream dams, including Baglihar and Salal.

"Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee (IAC) reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of "Early Kharif" (May - Jun 10) Late Kharif (Jun 11 - Sep) season. It was noted with concern unanimously that sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in Early Kharif Season," the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) stated in a press release.

Pakistan may face a significant water shortage during the Kharif season due to reduced water supplies from India.

The Kharif season refers to the monsoon cropping period in South Asia, typically running from June to October. Key crops grown during this season include rice, maize, millet, and cotton, which rely heavily on rainfall and irrigation.

"IAC declared an overall shortage of 21 per cent for the remaining Early Kharif Season in case supplies in River Chenab remains normal. However, the situation would be monitored daily and if the decrease continues in "River Chenab", the shortages would be revisited accordingly. The Late Kharif Shortages are expected to be 7 per cent," it added.

The water shortage is a likely fallout of India's decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance following the Pahalgam attack, which was attributed to Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism.

Treaty Dynamics and Broader Implications

The Indus Waters Treaty allocates 80% of the Indus River System’s water to Pakistan and 20% to India. While India controls eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), its suspension of the treaty allows unrestricted use of western rivers for projects like hydropower. Pakistan has vowed to challenge the move internationally, calling it a breach of bilateral agreements.

The attack in Pahalgam occurred on April 22 at Baisaran meadow, where terrorists targeted tourists, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen, and leaving several others injured.