Southwest Monsoon advances into Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and north-eastern states
The early monsoon in Kerala and other states raised hope for bumper sowing of kharif crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybeans, and other oilseeds.
Having hit the Kerala coast on Saturday, 8 days before the normal date of 1 June, the southwest monsoon that is crucial for the kharif crop and the agrarian economy, has further advanced into Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and north eastern states such as Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland on Sunday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This is the earliest date of the monsoon onset in Kerala since 2009, when it started on 23 May. Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on 30 May.
The southwest monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the annual rainfall and plays a pivotal role in kharif sowing, as 51% of the net sowing area is dependent upon rains. The early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala has been attributed to a combination of favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
"Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, South India and Northeast states," said a senior IMD official.
The early monsoon in Kerala and other states raised hope for bumper sowing of kharif crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybeans, and other oilseeds. In addition to these crops, the outlook is also favourable for horticulture crops such as tomatoes and onions, with acreages expected to increase.
"The early arrival of monsoon has come as respite, and it is beneficial for the farmers as well as the agrarian economy. It will definitely boost the sowing, especially in the areas which are rain-fed," said Professor Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and ex-member of UP planning commission.
Next 7 days
According to IMD, heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue over the west coast, including Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra, and Goa, during the next seven days. Extremely heavy rainfall is possible over Kerala from 25 to 26 May, coastal and Ghat areas of Karnataka from 25 to 27 May, and Ghat areas of Tamil Nadu on 25 and 26 May. Further, Rajasthan will get respite from the scorching heat as IMD has stated that the heat wave is likely to abate in the state from 28 May.
The IMD further stated that conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance further into some more parts of the central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, Karnataka, including Bengaluru, some parts of Andhra Pradesh, the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some more parts of west-central and North Bay of Bengal, and some more parts of Northeastern states during the next three days.
"A timely and adequate monsoon will provide a much-needed boost to India’s agricultural economy,” said Sanjeev Asthana, president, The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), in a statement earlier. Also, the forecast of above normal monsoon would also improve the reservoir level and the rabi season as well. Also, the consumption of electricity meant for irrigation will go down.
It is worth mentioning that banking on an above-normal monsoon forecast, the Union government has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for the crop year 2025-26. This new record level is 3.8% or 13 million tonnes more than the 341.55 mt food grain target in 2024-25.
Above-normal monsoon
On 15 April, IMD said that India is expected to receive an above-normal monsoon from June to September. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country for 1971-2020 was 87 cm.