The S&P 500 Is On its Own Eras Tour

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Today’s Agenda

Personal Records

Taylor Swift!!! Just when you thought the world finally had enough of her, she comes roaring back with a brand-new bodysuit:

pic.twitter.com/UAPpNOjLyg— marg ⸆⸉ (@BetttysCardigan) October 19, 2024

At this point, you’re either annoyed that people are talking about a one-legged unitard, or you’re the one being annoying. We’re now 41.714 fortnights into the Eras Tour — that’s one year and seven months for those of you who can’t do math — and attendance is stronger than ever. In that duration, people have gotten pregnant more than once. Paul Mescal has had multiple romantic interests. Movies and books and drinks and bracelets have been made. And the billionaire’s superlatives are starting to get absurd: Who else can claim to be the most-streamed artist in a single day on Spotify, plus hold the record for the most vinyl sales in a week, plus have the highest-grossing tour — and concert film — in American history? 

She’s the Katie Ledecky of the Billboard Hot 100 — whenever you think she’s peaked, she beats her own personal record. Which, conveniently, brings me to the S&P 500:

Perhaps the only entity that can defy expectations as handily as Swift is the economy itself. John Authers says the S&P 500 has managed to prove even the bulls wrong again and again and again. The basket of stocks is up 23% for the year and analysts keep raising estimates, only for the index to outpace them. Goldman Sachs strategists are now predicting it will top 6,000 a year from now, which would give it an 11% increase in 2025:

Sounds marvelous, right? Reader, if only it were that easy:

Believe it or not, these headlines came out less than a month apart. The same Goldman strategists saying the S&P 500 is set for another gangbuster year are saying the index will gain only 3% in nominal terms (1% in real terms) per year over the next decade — a historic low. “To predict simultaneously that an already strong market will have a great next 12 months and a poor next 10 years does imply an untenable spot, or even, conceivably, a bubble,” John warns. Who knows how soon it might pop.

Bonus S&P 500 Reading:

Election Silly Season

Apparently the Las Vegas Sphere has voted? I mean, sure, why not:

https://t.co/eYGiN3NDpS— James Line (@jameslineky) October 21, 2024

Crazier things could happen! The former president of the United States could speculate about the size of Arnold Palmer’s penis, for one. Or he could call his opponent a “shit vice president.” Or bemoan “woke” military officers. Oh wait, Tim O’Brien says all of those things did happen at Trump’s campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. It’s only a matter of time before he starts saying spherical stadiums will steal your job, kill your family and vote for Democrats. After all, that’s the false narrative he’s peddled about immigrants, Frank Wilkinson writes.

Tim says Trump “is so profoundly unspooled and rigidly ill-informed that getting him to articulate fact-based policies and rational approximations of how the world truly functions is a fool’s errand.” His penchant for paranoia, racism-laced conspiracy theories and authoritarianism hasn’t translated well on the ground: “While polls suggest the race is essentially a coin toss, meaningful swaths of voters haven’t made up their minds and may decide the outcome,” Tim writes.

Enter: Elon Musk, whose desperate attempt at getting out the vote — $1 million cash prizes! — might be illegal. Trump’s other attempt at goodwill? A 15-minute stint at McDonald’s(1), where he handled the french fries like a seasoned veteran:

pic.twitter.com/h4jXOWbJTK— doomer (@uncledoomer) October 21, 2024

If only he brought that kind of expertise to the White House. Tim says Trump’s “recent ramblings and an impromptu, oddball bout of dancing at a rally gave Saturday Night Live’s sketch writers all the material they needed over the weekend.” It’s one thing to laugh at the entire ordeal, but another thing entirely to give the butt of the joke access to the nuclear codes. Read the whole column.

Bonus Presidential Reading:

Telltale Climate Charts

In case you needed more evidence that the world is rapidly morphing into a massive air fryer with no off button, Mark Gongloff says the pavement in Phoenix, Arizona has graduated from you-can-cook-an-egg-on-it to you-can-get-third-degree-burns-playing-hopscotch levels of heat. “Anyone without air-conditioning is at risk of death,” he writes. But while AC is commonplace in a wealthy country like America — nearly 90% of US households have a unit — access to an electrical socket is still a major privilege elsewhere:

Africa, in particular, is powerless: “Its consumption stands at 23 GJ/capita, about where India was 15 years ago,” David Fickling writes. “Of the 685 million people globally without access to power, 571 million live there.” If that comes as a shock to you, Andreas Kluth argues politics might be to blame. “The US pays scant attention to Africa,” he writes. Biden postponed his first and only trip to Africa (he now plans to visit Angola in December) and Trump never bothered visiting after his “shithole countries” remark. China and Russia, of course, are more than happy to pick up the slack.

While the continent struggles to both literally and figuratively establish power, Javier Blas says global electricity demand is soaring everywhere else as the world moves to electrify everything. Too bad there’s a catch: Renewables increasingly rely on coal.

I got serious déjà vu seeing this chart, then I realized I had read about it – and written about it! — in late July. But Javier says those projections are already outdated, according to the International Energy Agency’s new 398-page annual World Energy Outlook: “The outlook for coal has been revised upwards particularly for the coming decade, principally as a result of updated electricity demand projections.” And guess what country is at the center of that revision? China! It’s allllll starting to make sense now.

Further Reading

The US should be opening its doors to Chinese students. — Bloomberg’s editorial board

The WNBA’s biggest competition is coming from inside the house. — Adam Minter

Who invented Bitcoin? I need to know, and so do you. — Tyler Cowen

When Brett Favre is a welfare queen, you know something is wrong. — Kathryn Anne Edwards

Rachel Reeves should incentivize stock ownership in the UK. — Merryn Somerset Webb

The FTC’s “click to cancel” rule is worth applauding, even if it hurts my Substack. — Matthew Yglesias

ICYMI

Olivia Nuzzi and New York Magazine parted ways.

Meta may have suppressed pro-Palestinian posts.  

The Diddy accusations get even more disturbing.

Tim Cook learned about group chats.

Kickers

Industry doesn’t get the industry.

Dirty soda is everywhere.

Can chicken fingers be fancy food?

Poland watched Coffin Flop and said “hold my beer.”

Notes: Please send Bobwhite chicken tenders and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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(1) McDonald's does NOT endorse political candidates. Baseball teams, on the other hand...

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Jessica Karl is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and author of the Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter.

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