Gulf States Fear Escalation as US Iran Strikes Rattle Region

Iran’s Arab neighbors urged restraint and warned of potentially devastating implications for the region after US strikes on Tehran’s nuclear program raised the prospects for all-out war in the Middle East.

In statements on Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Qatar warned it would have “disastrous consequences,” and Oman called it “illegal.” Those countries, and the United Arab Emirates, have spent months trying to use their geopolitical and economic heft to bolster nuclear talks between the Americans and Iran.

They spent the week since Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Tehran trying to keep the US from directly intervening. Saturday night’s bombings have shown just how much they are hostage to forces completely outside their control.

“I don’t think the Arab Gulf states have much control over the course of events at this stage,” said Hasan Alhasan, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at IISS in Manama, Bahrain. “There is no guarantee that any of the warring parties, Iran, Israel or the US, will take Gulf interests into account.”

In a press conference on Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister said he’d spoken with counterparts across the region the day before who were “worried about a possible attack by the United States.” 

“Almost all of them are very much concerned and interested to play a role to end this aggression by Israel,” Abbas Araghchi said.

Within the region, there was evidence of growing disquiet, with people stockpiling supplies in the UAE and Kuwait. Meanwhile, British Airways halted flights to Dubai and Doha, two of the region’s economic centers.

It’s a stark contrast from just over a month ago when US President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on his first scheduled foreign trip since returning to office. There, he touted the potential for trillions of dollars-worth of trade and investments between the US and the Gulf.

Leaders are “forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos,” Trump said in the Saudi capital, “where people of different nations, religions, and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence. We don’t want that.”

Gulf States Sidelined

The Gulf Arab states have sought to leverage their natural resources and trillion-dollar sovereign wealth funds to diversify their economies and emerge as significant geopolitical players. They’ve acted as key go-betweens during the US-Iran nuclear talks, urging a deal for the sake of regional stability and economic prosperity.

But none of the three principle players — Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — have appeared amenable to Gulf attempts at mediation in recent weeks. 

Israel and Iran exchanged volleys of missiles for days on end as Trump publicly mulled the possibility of US involvement. He ultimately went ahead with military action despite Gulf concerns.

Still, Gulf officials say they have little choice but to continue with diplomacy as they are potential front-line collateral damage in any broader conflict. The countries are home to tens of thousands of US troops and key military bases, worry about any impact on their oil infrastructure and fear possible radiation leaks from their neighbor’s nuclear sites.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has long warned against strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities for exactly that reason. 

Other worries include Iranian strikes or proxy attacks on US interests in the Gulf — the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Sunday morning condemned the American strikes and reiterated their readiness to attack US vessels and warships in the Red Sea.

If the Islamic Republic takes the extreme step of shutting the Strait of Hormuz — which handles around a quarter of the world’s oil trade — it could send crude prices soaring to $130 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics. 

“The Arab Gulf states’ central challenge is to prevent regional escalation from engulfing their territories while maintaining strategic ties with the US,” said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, head of the Emirates Policy Center, an Abu Dhabi-based think tank. “They will likely pursue a policy of pragmatic restraint, intensified defense readiness, and diplomatic balancing to contain the fallout.”

Gulf states, while quietly cheering anything that sets back Iran’s nuclear program, also continue to fear the prospect of a power vacuum in Tehran and the chaos regime change could bring, according to officials in the region who insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. The terrorism and sectarian warfare that followed the 2003 Iraq War and the Arab Spring loom large.

Decisions taken in Tehran in the coming hours will be key. Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi called the US move “outrageous,” adding that “Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest, and people.”

Still, Iran’s leaders will need to weigh the option of retaliation against US threats of further attacks.

“Our objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror,” Trump said in a social media post. “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater — and a lot easier.”

The hope in Gulf capitals is that those warnings will prevent the kind of retaliation that could further threaten Gulf security.

“For everyone in the region, it is now time to wait with baited breath and hope that cooler heads prevail in Tehran and Washington now that this major escalation has taken place,” said Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk consultancy Rane Network.

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