Taylor Swift backs Kamala Harris: Can the popstar influence US presidential polls? Her swing state fanbase in numbers

Taylor Swift is a pop sensation, but can she influence US presidential elections? On Wednesday, the 'Lover' singer supported Kamala Harris, the US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate. In her post on social media, she shared a link where voters can find information regarding voting dates and registration.

Her endorsement reportedly led to over 3 lakh people visiting vote.gov, a website where people can learn about voters' rights. The website does not register visitors to vote but rather directs them to their local state election websites for more specific voting information.

The surge in website visitors is seen as a sign of the potential effect Swift's announcement could have on November election.

The US Government Services Administration reportedly said that Swift’s endorsement post on Instagram led directly to 3,37,826 people visiting vote.gov.

"As of 2:00 pm ET [11:30 pm IST Wednesday], there have been 3,37,826 visitors to the http://vote.gov website via Swift’s link," the spokesperson of the administration told The Hollywood Reporter and NPR on Wednesday.

Taylor Swift endorses Kamala, urges voters to register

This happened hours after the first US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and her rival, Donald Trump, took place around 6:30 am (IST) on Wednesday. In a post on Instagram, Swift wrote that she would be voting for Harris and Governor Tim Walz, her Democratic running mate.

Swift also urged US citizens to cast their vote. She wrote, “I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first-time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story.”

Can Taylor Swift influence voters in US elections?

Taylor Swift has driven voter numbers in the past, but it yet could not be substantiated whether she could sway voters' decisions over whom to vote for. Here's a look at what's said so far:

1. A poll conducted for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in January 2024 found that 18 per cent of voters say they're "more likely" or "significantly more likely" to vote for a candidate endorsed by Swift.

According to the report, 17 per cent said they would be less likely to vote for a Swift-backed candidate, while 55 per cent said they would be neither more nor less likely to do so.

Among all the respondents in the survey, 45 per cent said they were fans of the singer, and 54 per cent said they were not. Only 6 per cent said they were not familiar with Swift.

2. It's also contended that while it's unlikely Swift’s opinion will sway voters, her influence could bolster turnout. In a survey (of nearly 500 people) conducted by the Guardian, most of the respondents said Swift's endorsement would not influence their vote. A few respondents said that other voters may be more susceptible and some did say that Swift’s opinions may influence their behaviour, if not their vote.

“I’m not influenced by her, but my kids’ generation is,” one person from Massachusetts was quoted as saying. “I’m much too well informed,” someone from Colorado added, “But it WILL affect young people.”

3. Meanwhile, an expert told ABC News that "social signaling" could impact people's voting choice in US elections. Marcus Collins, a marketing professor at the University of Michigan, explained, “If you self-identify as someone who sees the world like Taylor Swift does, you might go, ‘Huh, maybe I should be voting like that also'...It sort of sends a bat signal for what potentially is acceptable for people like me."

4. In 2018 mid-term polls, Swift's major political endorsement of Democrat Phil Bredesen couldn't help him much. Bredesen lost but Swift's endorsement demonstrated her influence – with Vote.org saying it had received nearly 65,000 registrations from voters aged 18-29 in the 24 hours after Swift’s post, The Independent reported.

5. Meanwhile, Lauren Rosewarne, a University of Melbourne professor, told the BBC that Swift's endorsement could impact voter registration. The report added that Swift's fan-base skews young and female. And that is already the Harris supporter base and so her endorsement may not have a big impact come November. "Harris's main problem lies with male voters...I'm not sure Swift moves them," said Rosewarne.

In data: Taylor Swift's fanbase in swing states

A swing state is where Republican and Democratic candidates have similar levels of support and that could potentially be won by either candidate. They are also known as battleground states. The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in eight states that remain competitive.

Data released by betting odds experts AceOdds in February this year showed that Taylor Swift's fan base is increasing in the swing states. The study revealed that Google searches around the popstar increase by 216 per cent on average in the past year.

"The biggest growing fan bases are in solid Republican States Florida (+219%), Iowa (+273%), and Michigan (+228%). Four of the five ‘tossup’ states saw higher than average searches for Taylor Swift, especially in Wisconsin, which increased by +282%," the data revealed.

AceOdds analysed search trend data over the past year and calculated which states have had the highest surge of Taylor Swift fans and compared them with the latest poll results and the number of electoral votes available to reveal where her influence may hold the most power in the election.

According to the data accessed by Mint, states such as Florida, Iowa, and Michigan saw the biggest increase in Taylor Swift fans. The three states have a total of 51 electoral votes between them.

Swift’s army of fans in 2023 saw searches related to her increase 219 per cent in Florida. Iowa, considered ‘solid’ for the Republican party, saw a search increase of 273 per cent. Michigan, which voted Democrat in 2020 but is considered to be leaning Republican, saw a search increase of 228 per cent for Taylor Swift in 2023, the data showed.

Meanwhile, "more influential states" such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have 19 and 10 electoral votes, saw fanbases increase above average, seeing a 222 per cent increase in Taylor Swift searches in Pennsylvania and a 282 per cent increase in Wisconsin.

Maine and Nebraska have a smaller influence on the election, holding 4 and 5 electoral votes. Data suggested that a 239 per cent increase in searches related to Taylor Swift was witnessed in Maine and a 227 per cent increase was seen in Nebraska. In Arizona, the searches for Swift was below the average increase in swing states, at 185 per cent.

If the Taylor Swift effect really is as influential as it seems, this could mean a big gain for the Democrats if they can win both states.