US Elections 2024: Kamala Harris overtakes Donald Trump among suburban voters as polls near

Kamala Harris appears to have overtaken Donald Trump among suburban residents and middle-income households in the US ahead of elections.

According to a Reuters-Ipsos analysis of its recent polls, the Democrats had been trailing Donald Trump until Joe Biden dropped out of the poll race in mid-July. Harris had gradually eked out a lead and led Trump 47% to 41% among suburban voters in polling across September and October.

Winning the middle (whether nationally or in the election's key states) won't necessarily crown the victor. The race for the White House is expected to come down to the wire — with swing states playing a key role. Polls have indicated a slim lead for Kamala Harris since she made an abrupt entry into the fray. But this has remained within the margin of error in many cases and fails to provide a clear indication as to who will win.

Suburbanites make up about half of the US electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large. Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential polls.

During the analysed period, Trump went from leading Biden 44% to 37% among voters in households that earn between $50,000 and $100,000 — roughly the middle third of the nation — to trail Harris 43% to 45%. The figures had margins of error of around 3 percentage points.

A Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls says Trump carried this group 52% to 47% in 2020.

Reuters/Ipsos surveys have shown voters consider the economy the No. 1 issue ahead of the election and in a poll conducted in October, 46% of voters said Trump was the better candidate for the economy, 8 points more than Harris' 38%. The polls have also shown Trump as the more trusted candidate on immigration and crime. Meanwhile Harris has put considerable focus in her speeches on pledges to increase the size of the middle class. She also is more often picked in polls as the better candidate for protecting democracy and taking a stand against political extremism.

The latest of the six polls, conducted Oct. 4-7, showed Harris up a marginal 3 percentage points over Trump among registered voters overall, 46% to 43%. Her modest edge in national polling is significant although the winner of the election will likely be determined by the results in seven battleground states - Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia - where polls have also shown a tight race.

(With inputs from agencies)