US Presidential polls 2024: THESE seven critical ‘swing states’ to determine next US President

Republican activists in swing states say they have seen little sign of the teams tasked with knocking on doors and turning out infrequent voters on behalf of Donald Trump, raising concerns about the party's presidential nominee relying on outside groups for an important part of his campaign operations.

The states that supported Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and former Republican President Donald Trump in 2016 are frequently cited as swing states. These seven states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are critical to determining the next president.

Michigan (Electoral Votes: 15)

Michigan has been a bellwether state, supporting the winning presidential candidate in the last two elections. While it backed Biden in 2020, recent tensions surrounding his support for Israel during the Gaza conflict have sparked backlash.

Amid the ongoing Gaza conflict, the US—Israel's primary ally and weapons supplier—has supplied Israel with over 10,000 highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of Hellfire missiles since the conflict began in October, according to US officials reported by Reuters in June.

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The state also has the highest percentage of Arab-Americans in the country, a demographic whose support for Biden has come under scrutiny. In response, Harris has adopted a firmer stance on Israel, and some protesters advocating for Gaza have expressed hope that she will be more sympathetic to their concerns.

As reported by Reuters, the Harris campaign celebrated a new endorsement just a week after the pro-Palestinian grassroots organization, Uncommitted National Movement, announced it would not endorse Harris, Trump, or any third-party candidate.

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Despite this setback, Harris has gained support from smaller Muslim groups, including the Black Muslim Leadership Council Fund and the American Muslim Democratic Caucus.

Arizona (Electoral Votes: 11)

In 2020, Democrats secured the presidency with Arizona's support, marking the first time since the 1990s that the state voted for their candidate. Located along the US-Mexico border, Arizona has become a key battleground in the national immigration debate. Recently, border crossings have decreased from record highs, making immigration a top concern for voters, BBC reported.

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Trump has frequently criticized Kamala Harris’s immigration record, given her role in addressing the border crisis under President Biden. He has also pledged to implement “the largest deportation operation” in US history if he returns to the presidency. Additionally, Arizona has seen contentious debates over abortion access, highlighted by state Republicans' unsuccessful attempt to reinstate a near-total ban on abortions from 160 years ago.

Georgia (Electoral Votes: 16)

In Fulton County, Georgia, Trump faces allegations of election interference as part of one of his four criminal prosecutions, having already been convicted in one case while the others are still pending. He and 18 co-defendants are accused of conspiring to overturn his narrow loss to Biden in the state. Trump denies any wrongdoing, and it appears the case may not reach court before the upcoming election.

Georgia has a significant African-American population, making up about a third of its residents, which played a crucial role in Biden's victory in 2020. This demographic's support is believed to have been instrumental in flipping the state blue.

North Carolina (Electoral Votes: 16)

Polling in North Carolina has tightened since Harris took the lead on the Democratic ticket, with some analysts now labeling the state a “toss-up.” This shift may be influencing Trump's decision to hold his first outdoor rally there since the assassination attempt in July.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina by a narrow margin of just over 70,000 votes, fueling Democratic optimism that this “purple” state—capable of swinging either red or blue—could be a competitive target in the upcoming election.

Nevada (Electoral votes: 6)

Nevada, often referred to as the Silver State, has voted Democratic in the last several elections, but there are indications that Republicans may be experiencing a potential turnaround. Initially, Trump had a substantial lead over Biden in earlier polls, but recent averages from the poll-tracking firm 538 show that this advantage has diminished since Kamala Harris secured the nomination.

Democrats had hoped that Harris, with her appeal to younger and more diverse voters, would help close the gap. As the election approaches, the shifting dynamics in Nevada highlight the competitiveness of the race and the importance of mobilizing various voter demographics. This evolving landscape will be crucial for both parties as they strive for victory in this key battleground state.

Pennsylvania (Electoral Votes: 19)

In the 2020 election, Pennsylvania played a key role in helping Joe Biden secure the presidency and reclaim the “blue wall.” Historically, Democratic candidates have had significant success in the state until Donald Trump's win in 2016.

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Biden’s victory in 2020 was tightly contested, decided by just 1.2 percentage points. As the swing state with the highest electoral votes, Pennsylvania remains crucial in elections.

Wisconsin (Electoral Votes: 10)

Wisconsin has been pivotal in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with the winning candidate decided by just over 20,000 votes each time. Analysts believe that third-party candidates could significantly influence outcomes in marginal states like Wisconsin, especially as they campaign against the dominant two parties.

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Trump has emphasized the state's importance, stating, "If we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing." Notably, the summer Republican National Convention took place in Milwaukee, further highlighting the state's strategic value in the electoral landscape.

(With inputs from agencies)