Bangladesh violence: How ouster of Sheikh Hasina to affect ties with India?

In a dramatic turn of events in neighbouring Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina resigned as Prime Minister on Monday and fled Dhaka after being in power for the past 15 years. 

In a broadcast to the nation on state television, Bangladesh's Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman said that Hasina had resigned and he would talk to the President to form an interim government. Sheikh Hasina, 76, had been in power since 2009 but faced accusations of election rigging in January. Over the past month, millions of Bangladeshi protesters demanded her resignation, leading to severe unrest in the country.

In response to the escalating protests, security forces clashed with demonstrators, resulting in the deaths of more than 300 people in the country. The situation intensified, prompting Hasina to quit and flee the country via helicopter on Monday noon.

Hasina's relations with US, China

Strained relations between Sheikh Hasina and the US date back to her first term in office. The assassination of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the ensuing suspicions of international involvement significantly influenced her foreign policy stance.

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The US had been critical of the democratic processes under her leadership, particularly her refusal to hold elections under a caretaker government—a demand from the opposition rejected by parliament in 2011. Although the US remained a major investor, the political relations between the two nations had cooled. US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said that with respect to financial support in fiscal year 2023, “the United States provided over 212 million dollars in bilateral economic development and health assistance to Bangladesh.”

In June, the World Bank's board approved two projects worth $900 million to assist Bangladesh in enhancing fiscal and financial sector policies and improving urban infrastructure for sustainable and climate-resilient growth.

In July this year, Prime Minister Hasina emphasised her preference for India over China, stating, “China is ready, but I want India to do the project,” when asked about the Teesta project. This preference reflected her broader efforts to reduce Bangladesh's dependence on China.

After abruptly ending her visit to Beijing and returning to Dhaka earlier in July, Hasina reiterated her choice, indicating a clear inclination towards having India handle the $1 billion Teesta River development project.

How Hasina's resignation will impact India?

India and Bangladesh have deep historical ties, with New Delhi providing crucial support to Dhaka during the 1971 Liberation War. The two countries share a 4,096.7 km border, India's longest land boundary with any of its neighbours. The turn of events is a strategic setback for India, as Hasina, Bangladesh's Prime Minister, was seen as the closest friend of India in the region.

Speaking to LiveMint, Former Ambassador and retired IFS Anil Trigunayat said, “In the short term, the relationship is likely to be impacted, especially in the strategic domain, since the other parties look at India merely from the Hasina prism, which is erroneous.”

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Trungunayat added that based on the examples of Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Maldives, Bangladesh's national interest will be prioritised, and “India will continue to play a significant role. There might be a greater focus on SAARC by the interim and next governments, while India has been more inclined to push for sub-regional mechanisms like BBIN and BIMSTEC,” he noted.

Speaking of the challenges before India, Anil Trigunayat noted that one of the biggest challenges was restoring trust. “India will continue to assist the Bangladeshi people through its ‘Do good’ policy. Geopolitical competition must be waded through with innovative bilateral and trilateral approaches. The non-reciprocal policy will have to be deployed with visible action while ensuring that security and cross-border challenges are addressed by the Bangladesh authorities,” he said.

Pankaj Saran, a veteran diplomat and former Indian envoy to Bangladesh, noted that the prolonged nature of the current environment could increasingly affect Bangladesh's economy, which is closely integrated with the Indian economy, as reported by PTI.

“There is a power vacuum right now, which is being filled by the army. But now we have to see whether this situation and this development will lead to a halt in street protests, the return of the students, and a reduction in street violence. That we have to see,” he said.

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India needs to carefully navigate the rise of radical elements in Bangladesh, the influx of refugees, and potential cross-border tensions. The close proximity requires active collaboration on a range of security issues, including police cooperation, anti-corruption efforts, and the fight against illicit drug trafficking, counterfeit currency, and human trafficking.

Moreover, the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus will face challenges, too. “The most important challenge is restoring the country's law and order and normalcy. Some student leaders are also represented. Secondly, calibration of objective relationships with all the political parties will not be that easy, especially with the Awami League, which, despite the ouster, retains a strong presence,” Trungunayat told Mint.

India’s approach to the crisis will be closely watched by other regional players, such as China and Russia, who have remained silent thus far.

(With inputs from agencies)