BOE Estimates Losses on QE Will Cost UK Taxpayer £85 Billion

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England’s quantitative easing program will cost British taxpayers as much as £85 billion ($106 billion) in today’s money over its lifetime, according to the central bank’s latest official estimate.

The figure, a small increase on the £80 billion in the BOE’s last quarterly report, underscores the burden QE poses for the public finances as losses mount on the £895 billion of asset purchases made between 2009 to 2021 to support the economy through the global financial crisis and pandemic.

Until late 2022, profits from the program reduced the Treasury’s budget deficit and helped pay for public services, but high rates and asset sales have reversed the effect. The portfolio is being unwound, with £704 billion remaining on the books. 

Unadjusted for inflation, QE will lose around £20 billion a year until the early 2030s – a sum equivalent to a third of today’s defense budget, the BOE estimated. Under a guarantee provided by the state in 2009, the taxpayer picks up that bill.

QE’s fiscal cost has become a political issue. Earlier this month, 44 lawmakers in the ruling Conservative Party wrote to Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, expressing “deep concern” about the way the BOE is handling the policy.

A cross-party committee in Parliament has called on the government to ensure the QE unwind ensures “value for money” for UK taxpayers. In an exchange of letters between the Chancellor and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, Hunt said he would “monitor the risks to the exchequer.”

Between 2009 late 2022, QE raised £124 billion, which was fully spent. Since then, the government has transferred some £50 billion to the BOE to cover its losses with more to come. QE will not be fully unwound until the mid-2030s.

Unadjusted for inflation, the net loss over the program’s lifetime is expected to be around £115 billion, the BOE showed. Assuming rates fall back to an “equilibrium” level chosen by the BOE, the unadjusted lifetime losses are about £65 billion. 

On the BOE’s preferred “net present value,” lifetime losses would range between £45 billion and £85 billion, it said. Three months ago, the BOE estimated the range at £50 billion to £80 billion. 

The figures are likely to change at the next quarterly update as losses are determined by the path of interest rates. The latest report uses a rate path taken at the end of March. Rates are now expected to remain higher for longer, potentially increasing the losses.

The BOE also said it has now unwound all £20 billion of corporate bonds bought during QE operations, leaving just gilts in the portfolio.

(Updates with detail on previous estimate in second paragraph.)

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