US Presidential Election 2024: Is Kamala Harris pulling ahead of Donald Trump in key swing states?

With only two months until the US elections in November, polls ahead of the Labour Day 2024 weekend show Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over Donald Trump in key battleground states. 

Former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump initially made gains against his Democratic challenger, Kamala Harris, in the presidential race. However, according to a report by NBC News, Harris is performing better than Trump in nearly every national survey, even within the margins of error.

According to Pew Research, the margin of error represents “how close we can reasonably expect a survey result to fall relative to the true population value.”

The latest Wall Street Journal polls show Kamala Harris getting 48 percent votes, while  Donald Trump has consistently polled at 47 percent, within the margin of error. 

The Wall Street Journal, EPIC-MRA Michigan, and Bloomberg/Morning Consult surveys in Georgia and Michigan all show him at the exact same number. This marks a reversal from the polls seen before Joe Biden's withdrawal.

Swing state polls

Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls indicate Harris has surpassed Trump, within the margin of error, in Georgia (50 percent), Michigan (49 percent), Nevada (50 percent), and Pennsylvania (51 percent). 

In Wisconsin, a key swing state, the Vice President leads Trump by a wider margin of 53 percent.

Arizona and North Carolina, on the other hand, have shown a tight contest between Trump and Harris. This contrasts sharply with Joe Biden's performance during his re-election campaign when he struggled to gain traction in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

Joe Biden was trailing Donald Trump

Before Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic candidate, Biden was trailing Trump, much before the US Presidential debate on June 27. Despite narrow margins in the Great Lakes swing states and larger gaps in the Sun Belt, Harris is performing better, and voters see her as a more trusted leader overall.

Poll data from the Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today show Kamala Harris leading with 48 percent, 49 percent, and 48 percent, respectively, while Donald Trump is at 47 percent, 48 percent, and 43 percent in these surveys.