Champai Soren’s next move: What role will he play in Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2024

Uncertainty over former Jharkhand Chief Minister Champai Soren's next step continues as political parties gear up for state assembly elections this year. Will Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Champai Soren join the Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state? Or will he form his own party ahead of the elections? Or will he, in fact, retire from politics?

In a long post on X, Champai said he experienced "bitter humiliation" as chief minister, which compelled him to seek an alternative path. Now all eyes are on Soren's next step. But will his decision may impact the overall politics in Jharkhand, which is headed for election later this year?

What if Champai Soren launches a new party?

 Lokmat reported quoting sources that if Champai Soren forms a party and contests the Jharkhand Assembly Elections 2024, he may emerge as the kingmaker in the state.

The report further said that Soren can also join hands with other disgruntled leaders of the JMM and the Congress, and form his own. He may also join National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, if not the BJP. NDA allies – the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Janata Dal (United) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)– are politically active in Jharkhand.

Champai Soren, popularly known as the 'Jharkhand Tiger' or 'Tiger of Kolhan', is likely to be a decisive factor in the tribal-dominated constituencies in the upcoming assembly elections. Out of the total 81 Assembly seats in Jharkhand, nearly 40 are dominated by tribal population.

Earlier in February this year, the Hindu cited the ruling alliance leaders as saying that Champai could be a tough challenger for the BJP’s tribal faces, such as Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP won 8 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, the JMM won three and the Congress won two. One seat was bagged by the AJSU Party.

Champai Soren credited the INDIA Bloc's success in the tribal seats to overwhelming public support. He stated, "The way you have supported the Alliance candidates despite false allegations and propaganda is significant for us. They (BJP) tried to suppress our voice but failed."

The BJP, however, failed to win even one of the five Lok Sabha seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in the state -- Khunti, Lohardaga, Singhbhum, Rajmahal and Dumka Lok Sabha seats.

What if Soren Champai joins BJP?

Champai Soren may emerge as a better option to counter JMM's tribal identity. It is speculated that the BJP may offer to project Champai as its chief minister candidate in the 2024 polls.

The BJP is the second-largest party in the state. If Soren joins the BJP, there might be a discussion on the role the BJP would give to Soren, the senior leader, as there are already former chief ministers --Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda-- in the BJP fold.

Meanwhile, Soren joining the BJP would give credence to Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren's claim that the BJP was poaching MLAs.

During a government function in Godda on Sunday, Hemant Soren accused BJP of poaching MLAs. "Forget about society, these people work to break families and parties. They poach MLAs. Money is such a thing that it doesn't take long for politicians to move here and there," he was quoted by news agency PTI as saying.

This may strengthen JMM chief Hemant Soren's position ahead of poll, further impacting the BJP's prospects.

Jharkhand Assembly Alections

In the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly polls, Soren's JMM fought the state elections in alliance with the Congress and Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) and got a comfortable majority with 47 seats in the 81-member house.

There are 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand. In the 2019 assembly polls, the BJP had won 25 seats, the Congress 16; the NCP, the CPI(ML)(L) and the RJD won one each; the JMM bagged 30 seats, the AJSUP two, the JVM three and independents won 2 seats.

The term of the existing Jharkhand Legislative Assembly will end in January 2025. The Election Commission (EC) has kicked off preparations for holding assembly elections.