J-K assembly polls: How Jammu and Kashmir threw up hung verdicts in elections since 2002. Explained in 10 points

Jammu and Kashmir is all set to hold its first Assembly elections in a decade to elect a government after over six years of Central rule.

Voting will be held in three phases with first round on September 18. The next two phases will be held on September 25 and October 1. The results will be announced on October 4.

This will be the shortest polling period in any assembly elections held in Jammu and Kashmir since 2002 polls. In 2002, the polls were held in four phases, in 2008 the election were held in seven phases while in 2014 the polling for assembly elections was held in five phases in Jammu and Kashmir.

The PDP-BJP government formed in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 could not last the full 6-year term as BJP withdrew its support to former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2018. Since then, the erstwhile state has been under central rule.

The Centre abrogated Article 370 in 2019. The erstwhile state was bifurcated into two Union Territories - Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

In December 2023, the Supreme Court upheld the constitutional validity of the Centre’s decision of scrapping Article 370. The Court directed the Union government to hold Assembly elections by September 30, 2024.

First assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir in 1951. The National Conference (NC) and the Congress were the dominant parties in the erstwhile state until 2002. In all elections since 2002, Jammu and Kashmir has thrown a hung verdict with no party winning an absolute majority.

Here is a detail of the last three elections.

The 2002 Assembly Election

National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah completed full term as chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir in his government between 1996 and 2002.

The Jammu and Kashmir assembly had a six-year term under Article 370, abrogated later. The assembly had 87 seats, including Ladakh, until 2019 abrogation of Article 370 and subsequent delimitation.

In 2002 polls, the National Conference won 28 seats while the Congress party won 20 seats in the 87-member house. The PDP emerged as a major player for the first time and bagged 16 seats in the polls. The BJP won a single seat in these polls. 

The assembly strength was 87 and 44 was the majority mark.

And for the first time, the PDP came to power in alliance with the Congress party. Each party agreed to hold the CM’s post for three years each. Jammu and Kashmir assembly had a six-year term under Article 370 scrapped later.

The 2008 Assembly Election

The NC won the 2008 Assembly elections, winning 28 seats. It formed a coalition government with the Congress, which had won 17 seats, in the then 87-member House that also included Ladakh.

The PDP had won 21 seats while the BJP won 11 seats. The remaining 10 seats were won by minor parties and Independents in 2008.

The 2014 Assembly Election

In the 2014 Assembly polls, the PDP emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats. All seats that PDP won came from Kashmir valley. The BJP finished second with 25 seats. All seats that the BJP won came from Jammu.

The PDP led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed decided to tie up with the BJP in what was an unheard-of alliance between the two parties with ideologies poles apart.

The NC had won 15 seats while the Congress won 12 seats in 2014 polls. The remaining seats went to other parties

This was the last assembly election before the territory's special status was revoked and Ladakh separated as union territory in 2019

Why a hung verdict?

The erstwhile state has been throwing hung verdicts because of different demography in Jammu and Kashmir divisions. Jammu is predominantly a Hindu region while Kashmir a Muslim-dominated division. While regional parties have been winning seats from Kashmir, BJP has been successful in Jammu region in previous assembly elections.

After delimitation in 2022, the assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir UT were increased to 90. There are now 43 seats in Jammu and 47 in Kashmir, with nine seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Six of the seven new seats went to Jammu.

Even in Lok Sabha polls 2024, BJP won both seats in Jammu while regional parties and an independent bagged three seats of Kashmir. It is another matter that BJP did not field its candidate from any seat in Kashmir in Lok Sabha polls, 2024.

After delimitation, the Jammu and Kashmir assembly has 90 seats. The majority mark for a party or coalition to form government is 46 seats. With voting less than a month away and results in about 45 days, will Jammu and Kashmir throw a hung assembly or a clear mandate? Only time will tell.