Nitish Kumar vs Tejashwi Yadav vs Prashant Kishor — who will likely be next Bihar CM? C-Voter survey reveals

With around six months left for the Bihar Assembly Election, a survey conducted by C-Voter, which tracks election trends, revealed that JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar is not the top choice for the next Bihar Elections.

Nitish Kumar is Bihar's longest-serving chief minister and has been the CM for 10 years at a trot now.

If Nitish Kumar is in the third spot, who is the most preferred candidate for the Bihar CM post?

The C-Voter survey, accessed by Mint, indicated that Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav is the most preferred candidate to be the next Bihar Chief Minister.

Meanwhile, analyst-turned-politician Prashant Kishor grabbed the second spot in the ranking. Kishor had recently launched his party Jan Suraaj. He said this party will contest the Bihar election for the first time and, that too, on all the 243 assembly seats.

On the fourth spot was Bihar Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Samrat Chaudhary. Another Bihar minister and BJP's ally, Chirag Paswan, was the fifth popular candidate for the Bihar CM post.

Who's popularity dropped, who gained?

As per the C-Voter survey, Nitish Kumar's popularity dropped by 3 percent — from 18 percent in February 2025 to 15 percent in April.

Even as Tejashwi Yadav emerged as the first choice for the Bihar CM post, his popularity declined from 40.6 percent in February to 35.5 percent in April.

Meanwhile, that of Prashant Kishor's increased by around two percent — from 14.9 per cent to 17.2 percent.

Nitish Kumar vs Tejashwi Yadav vs Prashant Kishor: Why this change in popularity?

In an interview with News Tak, C-Voter founder Yashwant Deshmukh analyzed the change in the popularity of the three key leaders in the upcoming Bihar elections and explained the factors that contributed to the change.

A. Nitish Kumar

Yashwant Deshmukh said there has been a "dent" in Nitish Kumar's "all-time high popularity". He listed these factors that led to the decline in his popularity as Bihar CM:

1. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), of which Nitish Kumar's JD(U) is part of, has not announced a CM face. This may be one of the reasons why the names of BJP's Samrat Chaudhary and LJP's Chirag Paswan have come forward. The BJP, the JD(U) and the LJP will contest the Bihar polls together in an Alliance.

2. People are concerned about his health

3. "Pendulum swings" by Nitish Kumar in the last 10 years may have taken a hit at Nitish Kumar's "credibility and popularity". Kumar has switched alliance five times in the last 10 years.

Deshmukh said Nitish Kumar used to get support across party lines, but this is not the case now.

4. Deshmukh said people are not "personally upset" with Nitish Kumar or the NDA government in Bihar. But Nitish Kumar's "absence" and his health have created "passiveness" among voters, he said.

B. Tejashwi Yadav

C-Voter founder Yashwant Deshmukh attributed the decline in Tejashwi Yadav's popularity to the "Congress' aggression".

He noted that the RJD has not yet resorted to a full-blown election campaign yet. Deshmukh said the Congress may not be wiped out entirely in Bihar.

C. Prashant Kishor

Deshmukh said Prashant Kishor is taking advantage of the "vacuum" created by Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav. He, however, noted that this popularity may not necessarily mean an increase in votes (or vote conversion) and winning of seats.

He believes that Kishor's Jan Suraaj will have "no shortage of candidates." He said those not getting election tickets from any of the alliances (NDA or INDIA) may go to Kishor's team.

The election for 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly will be held in October-November this year. The Election Commission is yet to announce the poll schedule.