World War ‘Aaj nahi to Kal’, predicts Shankar Sharma; What will be India’s role in it?

Conflicts in the Middle East have intensified, with Israel now engaged in a multi-front war involving Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and more recently, Iran. This escalation comes amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which began in early 2022. These crises have led to growing concerns that the situation may evolve into a broader global conflict, potentially even another World War.

Veteran investor Shankar Sharma stirred discussions on geopolitical tensions with a tweet, predicting an inevitable escalated global conflict. He foresees the formation of two opposing blocs in the world, with the US, UK, Israel, and Europe on one side and Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea on the other.

“Apna prediction kilear hai: aaj nahi to Kal, ek World War hona hi hai. US UK Israel Europe: Side 1. Iran Russia China N Korea: Side 2. India? Referee without Penalty Powers,” Sharma said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on October 2.

The tweet hinted at India’s uncertain role, likening it to a “referee without penalty powers” - a position of neutrality but with limited influence in mitigating the global conflict.

Sharma’s prediction aligns with growing concerns about escalating global tensions, particularly surrounding the US-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Middle Eastern conflicts involving Iran and Israel. The inclusion of major nuclear powers such as Russia, China, and the US intensifies the potential consequences of such a scenario.

Middle East tensions escalated significantly on October 1, when Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Tehran, while Iranian officials warned that any further targeting of their country would provoke an even more devastating counterstrike.

Sharma’s comment on India’s role as a “referee” reflects its current foreign policy of strategic autonomy and its ‘neutral’ position. While India maintains strong ties with the West, it has also sought to balance its relations with Russia and other non-aligned nations.

This is evident in its approach during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, where India has preserved diplomatic ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has engaged with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, aiming to foster dialogue without explicitly taking sides.

Financial markets have been rattled by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with the Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, dropping over 2% each on Thursday. The heightened volatility in the markets have added to broader concerns about the global economic outlook amid speculations over how the conflict will evolve.

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