Over 40% urban Indians indifferent to 'most populous' tag, finds survey

A sizable share of urban Indians say they are “neutral"—neither proud nor embarrassed, neither concerned nor confident—over India surpassing China to become the most populous nation on earth in recent months, showed the latest round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey, conducted among 10,072 respondents across over 200 cities and towns.

Around 43% of the respondents said they were neutral to India getting the No. 1 tag in population, 31% said they felt proud, and 26% found it embarrassing. In another question asking whether respondents saw high population as a problem or an opportunity, 33% picked the first, and 26% picked the latter, the rest (40%) choosing to be neutral.

The survey found that nearly half of urban Indians believe that with right policy-making, India can turn its high population into an asset. But, a sizable minority (38%) does not see such a possibility due to the scarcity of resources.

Also read: The population puzzle: what Indians feel

China, which was the most populous country until recently, had introduced a strict ‘one-child’ policy in 1980 in a bid to control population growth. The policy was criticized on multiple levels but it helped China stem population growth at a time of a rapid economic boom. With steep declines in birth rates, China in 2021 allowed couples to have three children, nearly five years after ending the one-child policy. The year 2022 was the first when the country’s population declined.

This made India the most populous nation in July 2023, according to the United Nations projections. It was against this backdrop that our latest survey was held, to gauge urban India’s views on this development. How India steers its economy forward with the high population—and when this population will peak—can shape global economic growth.

This was the 10th round of the survey that Mint has conducted twice a year since 2018 in association with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think-tank Centre for Policy Research. These surveys aim to examine the aspirations, anxieties and attitudes of India’s digital natives. Around 42% of the respondents in the latest survey were post-millennials (born after 1996), and 41% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996).

Also read: Marriage, kids not on top of mind for most urban Indians

Urban Indians are also highly likely (40%) to feel India has done worse than China on population control measures. Half said India needs either a strict step like China’s one-child policy or some measures such as penalties or restricting rights to contest elections to control population.

On how India is doing relative to China on certain other key measures, the verdict was in India’s favour on governance, economic growth, adoption of technology, and support to start-ups. On employment and poverty reduction, China was seen as doing better. But significantly, one in three respondents felt India was doing similar to China on each measure posed by the survey.

Now with India having surpassed China’s population, investment in better education is the most preferred answer when respondents were asked to pick three things in a list of six that India needed to do to achieve high growth like the neighbouring country. Creation of manufacturing jobs and investment in infrastructure were also among the top choices.

Also read: Urban Indians want to keep diversity away from family

If India’s population has to become an asset, it’s the huge youth population that will show the way. Urban Indians, including older ones, largely showed faith in the youth in this journey. About six in 10 respondents feel younger people need greater rights over their life choices than they have now, and around 57% think India needs young politicians. The shares are similar even among pre-millennials (those born before 1980). Around 56% said the youth should be open to adopting ideas from across the world, as opposed to 44% who said they should go back to their Indian roots and be wary of western ideas.

Also read: Climate risk finds high awareness in urban India: Survey

A large share of Indians (42%) also believe that today’s youth are independently carving their own path and doing better than earlier generations. A smaller, but considerable, share (33%) complained that youth were not open to challenges and wanted everything served on the platter. The rest (25%) saw the youth as victims of bad government policies.

This is one of four parts in a data journalism series based on the YouGov-Mint-CPR survey held against the backdrop of India becoming the world’s most populous country. Read all the parts here and the summary piece here.

Note that 84% of our respondents were relatively well-to-do netizens, falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic category of consumers. (The NCCS, or New Consumer Classification System, is based on the consumer durables owned by a household and the education level of the main wage earner.) However, 45% of those who earn and revealed their income make less than ₹30,000 a month.

The questionnaires, raw data and methodology for all 10 rounds of the biannual survey can be found here.