The population puzzle: What Indians feel

That’s why young Indians are largely unsure whether to rejoice or bemoan India becoming the most populous country, even at a time of zealous nationalism, found our latest survey of urban India, whose results were released this Independence Day. When asked whether they were proud or embarrassed, a sizable 43% picked neither. The share of “neutral" responses was similar even when asked whether the high population was a problem or an opportunity.

But that indifference is an aberration. For all it matters, young Indians are on task despite what they feel about India’s newfound status, the survey suggests. With one foot in tradition, and the other in modernity, they are leading several demographic shifts that will set the stage for the next phase of change, both in the economy and the society. Read on.

The ‘dividend’ dilemma

India surpassed China as the most populous country last month, according to the United Nations. It was against this backdrop that Mint conducted the 10th round of its biannual survey in June, in association with survey partner YouGov India and the Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research (CPR). Most of our respondents (83%) were born after 1980. The sample of 10,072 netizens was spread across more than 200 cities and towns.

From alarmist takes to triumphalist ones, India’s population trajectory has been hotly debated. After all, how well India can capitalize on its ‘demographic dividend’ is a question that will shape the 21st-century world. But for ordinary citizens, the question brings a sense of contradiction. While nearly half of those surveyed said right policy-making could turn the high population into an asset, a sizable minority (38%) did not see such a possibility (read Part 1: Hope or Despair?).

This could be why a significant proportion of respondents said India was doing worse than China on population control—even though they scored India better on governance and economic growth. Two other issues where respondents found China shining more were creating jobs and reducing poverty. To emulate China’s growth path, investment in better education and creating factory jobs were rated as the two most potent ways out of a list of six presented by the survey.

In a country where grey hair finds greater respect than young blood, it’s increasingly evident that the youth is raring to take charge—and is looking for the space and freedom to do so. The findings on this aspect are heartening. Across age groups, over 50% respondents were in favour of youth over experience in politics and sought greater rights over life choices for youth as opposed to elders dictating their lives.

The youth has always been said to be the future. But this firm faith marks a window opening for them to actually be that future, without inhibitions and restrictions.

Family matters

The survey points to shifting trends that could shape the future of India’s demography substantially in this journey. Urban Indians are challenging the traditional views around the nature of families, marriage and child-rearing. Over half said marriage and having biological children didn’t hold much importance to them. Even among married individuals—largely millennials—53% didn’t seem particularly interested in the institution of marriage, with reduced personal freedoms cited as the topmost reason (read Part 2: The Next-Gen Family).

With a gradual rise in individual freedoms, the notion of a family is also evolving, which can be gauged from two observations. One, more than half (51%) of the respondents said elderly parents needn’t necessarily live with their children. Second, a majority (57%) said individuals' personal choices, rather than adherence to social customs, should be the most important objective in a family.

Even amidst these notable shifts, Indians remain rooted to their family, who are seen as the primary pillars of their communitarian habitats. Nearly two-thirds of the respondents ranked their immediate family in the top two groups of people they consider to be “community", followed by “friends".

Some old stereotypes and biases live on. Alternative domestic arrangements such as same-sex relationships are yet to gain acceptance. Half of the respondents strictly don’t want their children to marry someone with a physical or mental disability, and 42% want them to be from the same religion. Having a neighbour from the LGBTQ+ community and those who hail from Uttar Pradesh or Bihar is also seen as undesirable, the survey showed (read Part 3: The Future of Community).

On obvious lines, pre-millennials and post-millennials differ on all aspects of family, marriage and community. Post-millennials—the first digital natives—were less likely to value marriage and having children, and highly likely to value personal choices over tradition in familial institutions.

Through these questions, the survey intended to find whether India’s youth is ready to challenge age-old dogmas—of self, family, and society—to steer the country ahead into a more prosperous, inclusive and safe future. Smaller, ambitious, and nuclear families will shape policies in the decades to come, as young parents look to contribute to the economy while finding alternative ways to care for their dependents. The discomfort with diversity, on the other hand, presents strange ironies that will be a sticky part in this journey.

Climate crisis on minds

Nothing can bind people together like a crisis can. Looking beyond the numerous social divisions, Indians have stood up for fellow citizens during a raging pandemic as well as during natural disasters. With climate change at our doorstep, concerns about what the UN calls a ‘crisis multiplier’ are high among Indians, irrespective of political inclinations and social identities (read Part 4: The Climate Crisis).

Half of the respondents—and even more in metro cities and among high-earning individuals—found climate change to be a “real and urgent" problem. Roughly two-fifths felt it had a substantial impact on their daily lives, and 54% were highly concerned about the prospects of the next generation. Respondents also felt that the primary accountability of climate mitigation lies with every country rather than just rich nations. Strikingly, older cohorts (those born before 1980) showed greater awareness and are more likely to take up climate-friendly practices than the young.

The absence of a partisan divide on climate issues is in stark contrast to the politically polarized narrative in the West. In a positive contrast, self-awareness around the issue seems high among Indians of all hues.

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Being highly populous is a double-edged sword, and India’s youth doesn’t shy away from this fact. However, it is also eager to make it count despite all odds. Doing that will need us to keep our loved ones close, yet feel free to break out when needed for greater good. In the silent social revolution that is underway, the aspiring Indian is more confident of their freedoms—as well as vulnerable about their boundaries. This new-age clarity on how they want their professional dreams to mix and balance with their personal desires will shape the next big shift.

Note that 84% of our respondents were relatively well-to-do netizens, falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic category of consumers. (The NCCS, or New Consumer Classification System, grades households from A1 to E based on the consumer durables it owns and the education of the main wage earner.) However, 45% of those who earn and revealed their income make less than ₹30,000 a month. The full methodology details and unit-level data for all 10 rounds of the survey are available here.

Data, analysis and charts: Manjul Paul, Shuja Asrar, and Pragya Srivastava from Mint, and Rahul Verma and Melvin Kunjumon from CPR. Survey operations: YouGov India.