Gold price today: Rates drop on hawkish US Fed; Israel-Iran tensions in focus; experts highlight key levels for MCX Gold

Gold price today: Gold prices traded lower in the domestic futures market on Thursday (June 19) morning after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and offered no clarity on when rate cuts might begin. Around 2:05 PM, MCX Gold August 5 contracts traded 0.25 per cent down at ₹99,290 per 10 grams.

On expected lines, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided on 18 June 2025 to keep the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

The US Fed's ‘dot plot’ chart projections show that key benchmark interest rates may fall by 50 basis points (bps) in 2025.

However, there are clouds of uncertainty over the path of interest rates as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation may accelerate over the summer due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Powell also cautioned that the Fed's interest rate forecasts could change based on incoming data, especially on inflation.

The Fed's hawkish tone added some strength to the US dollar; the dollar index inched up by 0.20 per cent, weighing on gold prices. When the dollar gets stronger, it makes gold expensive in other currencies and impacts its demand.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions remain a key support for gold prices. Tensions between Israel and Iran carry the risk of spiralling into a larger conflict.

On Wednesday, Trump said it was too late for Iran to negotiate. The US president also hinted at ‘something big’ next week.

Russia said it has been in contact with the US over the Middle East crisis and warned that Israeli strikes on Iran targeting nuclear sites have pushed the world ‘millimetres away from a catastrophe’.

Experts highlight key levels for MCX Gold, Silver

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, gold has support at $3,345-3,320 while resistance is at $3,400-3,422. Silver has support at $36.35-36.10 and resistance at $37.00-37.25.

In INR terms, Kalantri said gold has support at ₹98,950-98,690 while resistance is at ₹99,950-1,00,240. Silver has support at ₹1,07,580-1,07,000 while resistance is at ₹1,09,350-1,10,000.

According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, gold has support at $3,384-3,360, while resistance is at $3,427-3,455 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $36.60-36.35, while resistance is at $37.20-37.55 per troy ounce in today’s session.

MCX Gold has support at ₹99,100-98,670 and resistance at ₹99,900-1,00,350, while silver has support at ₹1,07,750-1,07,000 and resistance at ₹1,09,200-1,10,000.

"We suggest buying gold on dips around ₹99,000 with a stop loss of ₹98,570 for the target of ₹99,700," said Jain.

According to Renisha Chainani, the head of research at Augmont, gold prices are consolidating around record-high levels in the range of $3,360(around ₹99,000) and $3,475 (nearly ₹1,01,000). Support for gold is at ₹96,000 and ₹1,01,000.

Silver has crossed the $37 (nearly ₹1,09,000) resistance. The next target is $38 (nearly ₹1,12,000) if this positive momentum continues, Chainani said.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.