Reliance share price jumps 17% YTD: Can India's most valuable stock deliver more gains or is it time to book profits?

Reliance Industries’ share price has posted healthy gains so far this year, supported by comfortable valuations, strong growth prospects, and investors’ preference for quality large-cap stocks amid market volatility.

Reliance is India's largest stock with a market capitalisation of nearly ₹19.5 lakh crore. India's most valuable stock has gained over 17 per cent year-to-date (YTD) against a 4 per cent gain in equity benchmark Sensex.

On Wednesday, June 18, the heavyweight stock rose nearly 1 per cent in intraday trade.

Meanwhile, on a monthly scale, Reliance share price has been on a winning streak since March this year, even though it hit a 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 on April 7. Reliance shares hit their 52-week highs of ₹1,608.95 on July 8 last year.

Should you buy Reliance stock?

Experts appear largely positive about Reliance stock for the long term due to the healthy growth prospects of the conglomerate's retail and telecom divisions.

Global brokerage firm Jefferies has a buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹1,650. JP Morgan has an "overweight" rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,568. Bernstein has an "outperform" view on the stock with a target price of ₹1,640.

Reliance Industries, on April 25, reported a 6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in its consolidated profit to ₹22,434 crore for Q4FY25. Revenue from operations increased 10 per cent YoY to ₹2,64,573 crore. EBITDA for the quarter grew 3.6 per cent YoY to ₹48,737 crore, while EBITDA margin declined 90 bps YoY to 16.9 per cent.

"With the surge in crude oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, we expect improvement in refining margins for Reliance’s O2C (oil to chemicals) business," said Sneha Poddar, VP - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Poddar pointed out that segment-wise, RJio is likely to be the biggest growth driver with 21 per cent EBITDA CAGR over FY25-27 driven by one more tariff hike, market share gains in wireless, and ramp-up of the Homes and Enterprise business.

Additionally, with moderation in RJio capex, Poddar believes the peak of capex is behind, which should lead to healthy free cash flow generation and a decline in consolidated net debt.

"We expect continued growth recovery in Reliance Retail after the recent rationalisation of unprofitable stores and B2B, driven by category additions and its foray into quick commerce. Given these tailwinds, we have a positive fundamental outlook on the stock," said Poddar.

Anubhav Sangal, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, believes that Reliance could witness growth from their telecom and retail business for the next few years.

"We believe the stock has limited downside, with a potential upside of 5–8 per cent, driven by strong momentum in the retail business," said Sangal.

While the stock remains an attractive long-term bet, some technical experts suggest booking some profits at the current juncture.

"At the current levels, it is advisable to consider profit booking within the ₹1,410– ₹1,460 range, as the stock is trading near a key resistance zone. This area has historically witnessed selling pressure, and a pause or pullback cannot be ruled out," said Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.

"For those looking to initiate fresh long positions, a strong and sustained close above ₹1,470 is essential. Such a breakout would indicate renewed buying interest and could open the gates for a further rally toward the ₹1,550 mark in the near term. Until that breakout occurs, caution is warranted, and it would be prudent to wait for confirmation rather than entering prematurely," said Patel.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.