Sensex surges 1,500 points, Nifty 50 settles above 23,850: 5 factors that drove the Indian stock market today

Stock market today: The Indian stock market appears to be on a bull run. Equity benchmarks—the Sensex and the Nifty 50—witnessed strong gains on Thursday, April 17, and closed in positive territory for the fourth consecutive session.

The 30-share pack Sensex opened at 76,968 against its previous close of 77,044 and surged 1,572 points to hit an intraday high of 78,617. The Nifty 50 started the day at 23,402 against its previous close of 23,437 and jumped nearly 2 per cent to an intraday high of 23,872.

The Sensex finally closed at 78,553, up 1509 points, or 1.96 per cent, while the Nifty 50 settled at 23,852, up 414 points, or 1.77 per cent.

Considering Thursday's close, the Sensex has surged over 4,706 points in the last four days, while the Nifty 50 has gained over 1,453 points or nearly 6.5 per cent.

What drove the Indian stock market today?

Experts highlight the following five crucial factors that appear to be driving the Sensex and the Nifty 50 higher. Take a look:

1. Hopes of a trade deal between the US and India

The Indian stock market is riding on hopes of favourable trade negotiations between India and the US. Earlier, media reports suggested that US President Donald Trump may announce additional tariff exemptions after a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.

"Things are expected to normalise quickly. India is likely to reach a favourable trade agreement with the US. The Nifty reclaiming the 24,000–25,000 levels in the next two to three weeks is very much a possibility," said Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities.

Moreover, experts believe that Trump's tariff policies will not have as severe an impact on India as they will have on countries like China.

"The recent global tariff changes have added uncertainty to markets, but India is better positioned than before. With lower exposure to US trade and strong domestic demand, the direct impact remains manageable," said Rahul Singh, CIO-Equities, Tata Asset Management.

2. Macro boost

Recent macro prints have boosted domestic market sentiment. India's retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 3.34 per cent annually in March, lower than the 3.61 per cent registered in February and 4.85 per cent reported in the year-ago period. Retail inflation fell to its slowest pace in over six years (since August 2019).

The Reserve Bank of India expects retail inflation to stay at 4 per cent in FY26. GDP growth is also expected to remain above 6 per cent. RBI projects India's GDP growth at 6.5 per cent for FY26.

"Most macro indicators are positive—be it inflation, crude oil prices, or GDP projections. So, things are largely in place for us. Geopolitically as well, India is in a position to benefit from the ongoing trade war between the US and China," said Pandey.

3. Forecast of a normal monsoon 

The expectation of a healthy monsoon is another factor which has supported market sentiment. 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon season. Private forecaster Skymet Weather has also predicted that India will experience a normal monsoon this year.

The monsoon plays a significant role in India's economy. Normal monsoons could increase earnings for those employed in the rural sector. They also help keep inflation under control, which raises the prospects of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

4. FPIs resume buying

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have resumed buying Indian equities, influencing market sentiment. Data show that in the last two consecutive sessions, FPIs cumulatively bought Indian equities worth ₹10,000 crore in the cash segment.

FPIs have resumed buying Indian stocks amid a pause in Trump's tariffs. Moreover, the prospects of a trade deal with the US and a healthy economic growth outlook also seem to have attracted foreign investors towards the Indian stock market.

5. Strong gains in banking heavyweights

Healthy gains in banking stocks have driven the Sensex higher today.

Select banking heavyweights, including ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank traded among the top gainers, rising 2-4 per cent, in the Sensex index.

The Nifty Bank index jumped 2.21 per cent to close at 54,290.20. The index is inching closer to its record high of 54,467.35, which it hit on September 26 last year.

Banking stocks carry significant weight in the benchmark indices, and strong gains in them give a solid boost to overall market performance.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.