Indian stock market: Sensex jumps over 4,700 points in 4 days: Is the Indian stock market poised for a bull run?

Stock market today: India has led the global market recovery, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex outperforming both Asian and Western peers lately. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex have ended the last four trading sessions in the green, with each gaining 6.5% and 6.4%, respectively, during this time.

Although trade tensions are still ongoing, they have paused slightly after US President Donald Trump rolled back some tariff decisions and signalled a pause on others, bringing the bulls back to the Indian stock market.

Sensex soars over 4,700 points, Nifty 50 gains 1,350 in last four trading sessions

In the last four days, the BSE barometer Sensex has rallied 4,706 points, gaining 1,500 points today alone to reach a 2-week high of 78,553. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 has gained 1,452 points during the last four sessions. The 50-stock index rose over 414 points today to 23,851 points and traded firmly above its 200-DEMA level of 23,370.

“After shifting into a consolidation movement at the hurdle of 200-day EMA around 23,360 levels on Tuesday, Nifty surpassed the said hurdle on Wednesday and closed higher. The huge opening upside gaps of 11th and 15th April remain unfilled, and these gaps could now be considered as bullish runaway gaps, which are normally formed in the middle of the trend,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

What's behind the rally in Indian stock market?

The majority of the recovery rally was led by financials, boosted by the second consecutive repo rate cut by the RBI. A cooling in retail inflation, driven by falling vegetable prices, has also raised expectations of another rate cut, which fueled a strong rally in banking stocks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and State Bank of India.

The Nifty Bank is currently trading near its all-time high of  54,467 points. 

A combination of domestic factors and easing trade tensions has encouraged investors to go on a buying spree, taking advantage of the sharp corrections, causing Indian stock market to bounce back sharply.  

In addition to strong domestic inflows, overseas investors have also turned net buyers in the past few trading sessions, helping the Indian stock market recover most of its recent losses. FPIs have brought ₹3,936 crore worth of Indian stocks through stock exchanges on Wednesday, following ₹6,065 crore on Tuesday’s trading session.

After a sharp correction from the peaks, valuations of large-cap stocks have somewhat adjusted to fundamentals, bringing optimism back to the Indian stock market.

The broader markets have recorded double-digit gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index gaining 11.45% from April 07 lows, while its peer, the Nifty Smallcap 100, even gained higher, rallying 16% in the same period.

The 90-day pause in the 26% reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump last week has significantly boosted export-oriented sectors such as chemicals, textiles, and auto ancillaries. In addition, fisheries stocks have also made a strong comeback, while EMS stocks have reacted positively to the tariff pause.

India–US trade talks gain traction

Tariff negotiations between India and the United States are gaining momentum, even as China and the US remain locked in a bitter and acrimonious trade war—an opportunity India is keen to capitalise on, according to top government sources.

The United States remains India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $118 billion in the 2023–24 period. India has expressed its intent to double this figure to $500 billion by 2030.

Trump has signaled a pause on proposed tariffs on auto imports. Meanwhile, US officials are reportedly planning to use ongoing negotiations with more than 70 countries to urge them to block China from rerouting goods through their borders. Around 70% of these countries are said to be in active trade discussions with the White House, according to recent media reports.

US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products by another 100% on Wednesday, taking the total to 245%, after Beijing ordered its airlines to halt further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets. China last week imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. products and also stopped exports of critical minerals.

Will the rally in the Indian stock market continue?

The continuation of the rally in the Indian stock market may face challenges, with analysts cautioning that muted earnings expectations for the March quarter and the possibility of fresh tariff announcements by Donald Trump could dampen sentiment. 

Reports suggest that semiconductors and other key sectors may be brought under new tariff measures and escalating trade tensions between the US and China — a development that could weigh on further market gains, as per the analysts. 

Dr V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said, “Domestic consumption-driven stocks in financials, telecom, aviation, cement and sections of autos are hitting 52-week highs and some are setting new records. This trend will continue. FPIs have turned buyers in India since the prospects of US and China are the worst in this crisis. FIIs are likely to continue buying high-quality large caps in domestic consumption sectors.”

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, said, "Amidst global weakness, the Indian market exhibited a mild positive sentiment in anticipation that the trade fight between the US & China will not harm but benefit India, and March's CPI inflation which is at a 5-year low is indicative of further rate cuts in the near future. Domestically, the Q4FY25 earnings season has started on a weak note. Overall expectations remain subdued, suggesting potential profit booking at higher levels."

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.