Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: Election ‘Nostradamus’ Allan Lichtman finally picks US Presidential poll winner

Historian Allan Lichtman — well known in election circles for successfully forecasting US election results — has finally picked his winning candidate for 2024. The election ‘Nostradamus’ used his ‘Keys to the White House’ prediction model to claim that Kamala Harris would make history as the next President. The development came mere days before the two leaders are slated to come face to face for their first Presidential debate.

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States…at least, that's my prediction for this race,” Lichtman said in a video for the New York Times.

The political pundit had been one of the few to correctly call the 2016 elections in favour of Donald Trump and also predicted a win for Joe Biden in 2020.  Earlier in May he had also suggested that President Joe Biden (this was before his exit) would retain the White House for another term unless “a lot goes wrong” in November. 

“I have not made a final prediction yet but I do have a model for 13 keys to the White House which have been correct since 1984 - 10 elections in a row - and the way it works is if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (incumbent) they are predicted losers and if fewer than six then they are predicted winners. Right now a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He's at the moment down by just two keys,” he had told NDTV in early May.

And while a lot has changed over the past few months, Donald Trump appears to be nowhere close to conquering the 'keys'. Lichtman told NYT that three keys were definitely ‘false’ while two others could ‘flip’ to false. However this would only create five negative keys — “which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House”.

He attributed a possible Democratic win to the absense of a strong third-party candidate, the US economy not being in recession, key acts of the Biden administration such as the Inflation Reduction Act, and the absence of sustained social unrest.

There are just 61 days left until the November election and early voting will be underway in at least four states by the end of September. A dozen more will follow by mid-October.

(With inputs from agencies)