Election exit poll results: Congress to end BJP’s 10-year run in Haryana; hung House in J&K with NC-Cong edge

The Congress party is likely to wrest power from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Haryana after remaining in opposition for ten years, exit polls predicted on Saturday. The pollsters have, however, predicted a hung house in Jammu and Kashmir where first assembly elections were held in a decade.

The Congress is expected to win anywhere between 49-55 seats of the 90 seats in Haryana where the majority mark is 46, according to exit polls released after single-phase polling in the state with about 67 per cent turnout on Saturday. 

The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to win 18-32 seats in Haryana, as per poll of exit polls.

The BJP had won Haryana assembly polls in 2014 and 2019. Jammu and Kashmir which in three phases - September 1, 25 and October 1 – is under central rule since 2018.

The votes of the two elections will, however, be counted on October 8. The exit poll predictions by agencies are based on voter feedback collected after the polling.

Clean Sweep for Congress in Haryana

As per Dainik Bhaskar's predictions, the Congress is predicted to win 44-54 seats in the 90-member Haryana assembly securing a clear majority. The BJP is predicted to get 19-29 seats as per this exit poll. The majority mark in Haryana is 46 seats.

Republic-Matrize has given 55-62 seats to Congress in Haryana and 18-24 seats to BJP. The JJP+ is expected to get 0-3 seats while INLD may get 3-6 seats, as per this exit poll. The others may get 2-5 seats.

The India Today-C Voter has predicted 50-58 seats for the Congress party and 20-28 seats for the BJP in Haryana. The others may get 10-16 seats, the survey said.

The ruling BJP eyed for a hat-trick of electoral victories in the state, while the Congress party hoped to come back after being in opposition for a decade in Haryana. The BJP won 40 seats, six short of majority mark and the Congress won 31 seats in 2019 assembly polls. Eventually, the BJP formed government with the help of 10 JJP MLAs and independents.

The Jist-TIF research has given 45-53 seats to Congress and 29-37 seats to the BJP in Haryana. The pollster gave 0-2 seats to INLD and 4-6 seats to others in Haryana.

While the idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has faced scrutiny many times in the past.

Dhruv Research, a lesser-known pollster, has given 57-64 seats to Congress and 27-32 seats to BJP in Haryana. People's Pulse has given 55 seats to Congress, 26 to BJP, 0-1 to JJP+, 2-3 to INLD and 2-5 to others in the state neighboring Delhi.

Hung House in Jammu and Kashmir?

In Jammu and Kashmir, the exit polls predict that the National Conference-Congress alliance might fall short of 46-seat majority mark in the 90-members house.

The India Today-C Voter has predicted 23-27 seats for the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir and 40-48 seats for the NC-Congress alliance. The PDP gets 6-12 seats and others 6-11 seats in J&K, according to India Today -C Voter exit poll.

Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India has given 35-45 seats to NC-Congress alliance and 24-34 seats to the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir. The PDP is predicted to win 4-6 seats while others, including independents, are predicted to win 8-27 seats.

The BJP will win 28-30 seats in J&K as per exit poll by local news channel, Gulistan. The NC will win 28-30 seats, the Congress 3-6 seats while the PDP will win 5-7 seats as per this exit poll. Others will get 8-16 seats.

Peoples Pulse has given 13-15 seats to Congress, 23-27 to the BJP, 33-35 to NC, 7-11 to PDP and 4-5 seats to others in Jammu and Kashmir.

Jammu and Kashmir held its first Assembly elections in 10 years. This was also the first Assembly election in the UT after the abrogation of special status under Article 370 in August 2019.

In 2014, the PDP and BJP had formed a rare government with late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as Chief Minister. The government couldn't last long and pulled out in 2018. Jammu and Kashmir has been under central rule since then.