Is the tide turning against BJP ahead of crucial Maharashtra polls 2024? Making sense of election exit poll results

If exit poll results hold true, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) will not score a hat-trick of victories in Haryana where elections were held for 90 seats on October 5. The Congress is all set to wrest Haryana from the saffron party after staying in opposition for ten years, almost all exit polls predicted on Saturday.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the saffron party may get anywhere between 20 and 34 seats in the 90-member assembly. The number, if holds, true will be more or less similar to 25 seats that the party won in the last J&K elections held in the erstwhile state in 2014.

Exit poll results have not always been accurate. The real results will be declared after the votes of both assembly elections are counted on October 8. Yet, the question that many would ask is what the results mean for the BJP, if at all the exit poll numbers are anywhere close to real results to be declared in three days from today.

Haryana, first litmus test post 2024

Haryana was the first litmus test for BJP post 2024 general elections. The BJP’s predicted defeat in Haryana comes four months after the Lok Sabha Election 2024 results in which the party failed to score simple majority on its own. The BJP stopped at 240 seats losing 63 seats from the 303 it had won in 2019. 

Overall, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 293 seats. And Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister for the record third time. 

The Congress-led INDIA bloc bagged 235 seats in Lok Sabha with the Congress winning 99 seats.

“The results show the momentum in favour of INDIA bloc and the Congress continues even after the 2024 polls. If the numbers hold true, Haryana will be a setback for the BJP,” Manisha Priyam, political analyst told LiveMint.

BJP’s decline in Haryana

The BJP has been losing ground in Haryana since 2019. The Congress is buoyed by its 2024 general election performance. In fact, in 2019 assembly elections in Haryana, the Congress increased its tally to 31 seats from 15 it had won in 2014. The BJP failed to win simple majority and had to rely on 10 JJP MLAs and independents to form the government.

A few months before October 5 polls, the BJP replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister of Haryana. This didn’t seemingly help the saffron party. 

In 2024, the Congress wrested back five Lok Sabha seats from the BJP. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had won all 10 parliamentary seats in Haryana.

Maharashtra Elections, next on cards

The results to be declared on October 8 will set the tone for upcoming elections in key states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. Maharashtra is a key state for BJP where it is in power. But some analysts have predicted not-so good results for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the state elections scheduled for next month. 

The Maharashtra election is expected to witness a two-way fight between the MVA coalition, of the Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP - Sharad Pawar and the Congress, and the Mahayuti Alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde and NCP-Ajit Pawar.

The ruling alliance didn’t perform well in Maharashtra too in Lok Sabha elections. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) won 30 of the Maharasthra’s 48 parliamentary seats. The ruling Mahayuti bagged just 17 seats of which BJP won 9 seats.

In 2019, the NDA had won 43 of the 48 seats from Maharashtra while the then UPA had bagged the remaining five seats.

“Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi are key states. BJP is in power in Maharashtra and in opposition in Jharkhand and Delhi. I think the BJP has somehow failed to sell voters the hope for a secure future. This is what is playing out in elections and will remain relevant in upcoming polls toom" Priyam said. 

Message from Kashmir

As per exit poll results, with 20-34 seats, the BJP will emerge as a key player in Jammu and Kashmir. The predictions threw a hung assembly for the erstwhile state. The BJP had won 25 seats in 2014 when the last assembly polls were held in J& K.

Even if BJP is not in the government, it will end up sending a powerful message to the world – of holding free and fair elections with ‘encouraging’ turnout in the Union Territory, five years after abrogating Article 370.