J&K Exit Poll Results 2024: Independent candidates to play kingmakers?

The Jammu and Kashmir exit poll results predicted a hung assembly in the union territory, giving the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance an edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The exit polls showed that the regional party, NC, could emerge as the single-largest party in J&K, while independent candidates may take role of "kingmakers".

The Congress and National Conference (NC) contested the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections in an alliance against the BJP. The Elections Commission will declare the official results of the assembly polls on October 8.

Exit poll results for the J&K Assembly Election were announced on Saturday, just after polling concluded in Haryana. There are 90 assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir. A political party needs 46 seats to form the government in the union territory. 

Here's what J&K Exit polls results showed:

1. Axis My India exit poll said the BJP could with 24-34 seats (21% vote share) in J&K, while the NC-Congress-CPIM alliance may bag 35-45 seats (38% vote share). It predicted 4-6 seats (9% vote share) for Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP). This exit poll pegged NC's seat share at 24, Congress' at 14 and CPIM at 0.5.

2. The C-Voter-India Today survey predicted 40-48 seats for the NC-Congress alliance and put the BJP at 27-32 seats in the 90-member J&K assembly. As per the exit poll, the PDP may win 6-12 seats, on par with independents who could get 6-11 seats.

3. Dainik Bhaskar pegged the NC-Congress alliance at 35-40 and the BJP at 20-25. It showed that independent candidates may surpass the PDP, which may get 4-7 seats.

4. Peoples' Pulse saw the NC-Congress alliance with 46-50 seats as against the BJP's 23-27

5. Republic-Gulistan predicted 31-36 seats for the NC-Congress and 28-30 seats for the BJP. It also indicated a ‘kingmaker’ role for independent candidates who may end up with 19-23 seats and the PDP left with 5-7.

6. Most exit polls pegged INLD tally higher than that of the JJP, while others were seen getting up to 10 seats.

7. Reacting to the exit poll predictions, J&K BJP president Ravinder Raina said his party contested the assembly polls with all its strength. "We are confident that BJP will emerge as the single largest party when the results are out on October 8," he was quoted by PTI as saying.

“The BJP will emerge victorious on October 8 and will start working on the formation of the government. We fought the elections on our own strength. Our target is to win the elections with the blessings of the people and we will achieve splendid victory," he said.

8. J&K Congress president Tair Hameed Karra said the Congress-NC alliance is in a comfortable position to form the next government in the Union territory. “This election was primarily to keep the BJP out of the power corridors, restoration of statehood along with land and job guarantees. I am seeing the (Congress-NC) alliance in a comfortable position to form the government,” Karra said.

9. National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah, however, described the exit polls as “just time pass” even though the results are in favour of his party. "I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp etc. because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass," Abdullah, a former chief minister, wrote on X.

10. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) said the exit polls were not reliable and it was too premature to talk about government formation. "We have seen that exit polls are not reliable. What matters are the numbers that will come at the end of counting," senior PDP leader Naeem Akhtar told PTI. Asked if the PDP will support the NC-Congress coalition if need be, Akhtar said, "They might not even need our support. Finally, a decision on this matter will be taken by the party. All said and done, we are still part of the INDIA bloc. We have not gone anywhere."

(With inputs from agencies)