Delhi Elections: WIll Nirmala Sitharaman's Income Tax cuts win middle-class votes for BJP?

In her Budget 2025 speech on February 1, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that income tax will not be payable up to income of ₹12 lakh, which is a big relief for middle-class taxpayers.

The tax relief will boost middle-class spending power and might influence the economic segment's voting preferences in the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections 2025.

From President Droupadi Murmu to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal, everyone seems to be concerned about the middle class of late – perhaps in the run-up to the Februay 5 assembly polls in the national capital.

Speaking to reporters ahead of the Budget Session on Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said. “I pray that Maa Lakshmi continues to bless the poor and middle class of our country and continues to shower her blessings.” President Murmu, who didn't speak a word on the segment in her previous address to Parliament, referred to the middle class at least eight times in her speech kicking off the Budget Session on Friday.

Kejriwal has also been talking about the middle class. On January 23, the former Delhi Chief Minister released what his party, AAP, called the ‘middle-class manifesto.’ The manifesto was a series of Modi government demands, including raising the tax exemption limit.

Who does the middle class vote for?

The AAP has a diverse voter base representing different demographics and socio-economic segments. The party started swaying the middle class through its anti-corruption poll plank when it fought its first assembly election in 2013. Years later, the AAP made inroads into poor and lower-middle-class groups that benefit from AAP schemes.

According to a post-poll survey by Lokniti-CSDS, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) narrowed the gap between it and the AAP among the poor, lower-income and middle-income voters between the 2015 and 2020 assembly polls.

While the AAP was ahead of the BJP by 15 per cent in total vote share in 2020 assembly poll results, the gap between the two parties in middle-class voters was 6 per cent, with the AAP taking the lead, according to political analysts. Yet the AAP has been labelled as a ‘party of the poor and lower middle class’ – perhaps because of its free subsidies on electricity, water and more.

“The tax slab relief will obviously impact Delhi elections. The BJP has been for long trying to puncture AAP's clean government plank. The middle-class voter in Delhi has been swinging. It voted for the AAP in the last election. And if the 6 per cent gap swings in BJP's favour this time, the AAP will face a defeat,” banker-turned-political analyst Amitabh Tiwari told LiveMint.

Delhi is scheduled to vote on February 5, four days after the Budget announcement. The results will be declared on February 8. The AAP won the Delhi assembly elections in 2015 and 2020. The BJP has not been in power in the national capital for 27 years.

BJP's ‘tax terrorism’: Kejriwal

“I have been to serve across the country. But in Delhi, you have not allowed me to serve. You have seen Congress and AAP for 25 years. Now, please give kamal (lotus) a chance. I promise I will serve you like the head of a family,” Modi said, addressing a rally in the national capital on January 29.

With its focus on middle class, the ruling party AAP is clearly targeting a demographic group that helped it rise to prominence in 2013 after being borne out of the anti-graft movement a year ago.

Kejriwal said that the middle class was a victim of the BJP's ‘tax terrorism’ and the most harassed in India. “Fifty per cent of their salary goes into paying taxes. From groceries, milk, curd, to popcorn and even pooja samagri is being taxed heavily,” Kejriwal said, adding that India's youth, which could have helped the country's economy grow, have shifted abroad and are now making money for other countries.

For the BJP, the core vote bank – the upper middle class and trading community — remains intact in the national capital. Still, the number of seats for the BJP has decreased from 32 in 2015 to just 8 in the 2020 assembly polls.

More Indians becoming less hopeful: Survey

Before the Budget 2025, the middle class was reportedly disgruntled with the Union government. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, according to Tiwari, the BJP registered a 3 per cent drop in middle-class voters, while the Congress saw a 2 per cent increase in middle-class votes.

More Indians are becoming less hopeful about their quality of life as stagnant wages and higher living costs cloud prospects, a recent survey showed ahead of Budget 2025.

More than 37 per cent of respondents in a pre-budget survey said they expect the overall quality of life for ordinary people to deteriorate over the next year, the highest such percentage since 2013, findings released by polling agency C-Voter showed on Wednesday.

The sudden focus on middle class comes days after the Centre announced 8th Pay Commission for Central government employees. “In the last few years, the burden on salaried class through personal income tax was going against the BJP while it kind of favoured corporates,” said Tiwari.

The Election Commission (EC) had said while announcing the dates of Delhi Assembly Elections in January that no national-capital-centric announcement can be made in the Budget 2025.