Gold price may trade in a narrow range in January, rate cut hopes to support; deploy buy on dips, say analysts

Gold price outlook: Gold prices traded higher on Tuesday tracking gains in international bullion prices supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in 2024.

MCX gold prices have risen 14.8% in the year 2023, while silver price gained 7.2% during the year. In the international market, bullion prices gained 13% in 2023 to post their first annual gain since 2020 on hopes that the US central bank could cut interest rates as early as March.

Also Read: Gold prices track best year since 2020, supported by hopes of Fed rate cut in 2024

However, analysts believe gold price is expected to remain in a narrow range in the month of January after the recent upmove.

“Gold prices saw a decent rally recently amid dovish Fed and anticipation of rate cuts in 2024. However, the positives are largely discounted and the bullion prices are expected to remain in a narrow range this month,” said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory.

The US dollar seems to be in oversold territory and may see a pullback, which will cap gains in the gold prices. The geopolitical disruptions are also discounted and unless there is a major escalation, we may not see a big rally in the yellow metal. Moreover, physical gold demand in India remained weak due to high local prices, Kedia explained.

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Going ahead, investors will closely monitor the release of minutes from the last Fed meeting for further insight into potential rate cuts. Additionally, data on US job openings and December non-farm payrolls will be important indicators to watch. 

“Gold prices may trade in a narrow range and investors can adopt ‘buy on dips’ strategy. MCX gold price may face resistance at ₹64,600, while support is seen at ₹61,850 level,” Kedia said.

Also Read: 'Gold price may touch ₹72,000 per 10 gm in 2024'

Meanwhile, silver prices are also expected to remain in a range and trade sideways this month. In the international market, the $25 level will be an important level to watch out for and only a break above this can trigger a strong upmove.

“Silver prices are being supported by a weaker US dollar and positive developments in China’s economic stimulus measures. However, concerns about a potential US recession and possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are weighing on the greenback,” Kedia said.

According to Kedia, MCX silver price may face resistance at ₹76,500 level and support is placed at ₹71,600 level.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.