Gold price outshines Sensex, Nifty 50 and silver, doubling investors’ money in four years

Gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) ended lower on Thursday, April 17, amid profit booking, retreating from their recent record high near the ₹96,000-mark. The MCX gold rate touched an all-time high of ₹95,935 per 10 grams before easing.

Internationally, gold prices also witnessed a pullback as investors locked in gains after bullion hit a fresh peak. Market participants are now closely watching tariff negotiations between the United States and Japan.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,317.63 per ounce, while US gold futures declined 0.5% to $3,330.60. Earlier in the session, bullion reached a record high of $3,357.40 and has gained more than 27% year-to-date.

Here are some key highlights from the recent rally in gold prices:

Gold Prices Double in Four Years

Gold prices have seen a remarkable surge over the past four years. In April 2021, the MCX gold rate hovered around ₹47,000 per 10 grams. On April 17, 2025, the gold price hit a historic high of ₹95,935 per 10 grams — marking a robust 104% increase.

This dramatic rise has been supported by a combination of domestic and global factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine war, robust central bank purchases, strong investment and physical demand, and consistent inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

On the other hand, Sensex was trading around 49,000 in April 2021 and is now trading around 78,500 level, delivering 60% returns in four years.

Eight Consecutive Years of Gains

Gold prices have delivered positive annual returns for eight consecutive years since 2018. Notably, the last three years have seen double-digit gains. According to data from Kedia Advisory, MCX gold posted annual returns of 14.38% in 2022, 14.88% in 2023, and a significant 21.43% in 2024.

In 2025 so far, gold prices have surged 24.71% — with eight months still remaining in the calendar year.

Gold Outperforms Silver, Base Metals, and Equities

Gold has significantly outperformed other major asset classes, including silver, base metals, and equities. Year-to-date (YTD) in 2025, the MCX gold rate has delivered a return of 24.71%, compared to a 9.28% gain in MCX silver prices. Over the same period, the Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex advanced only 0.5%, while Nifty 50 gained 0.8%, underscoring gold’s relative strength.

In 2024, gold price rose 21.4%, while silver gained 17.20% and the Sensex increased by 8.17%.

Gold Price Outlook

Analysts are of the view that gold prices may not see a major upside from current levels this year as all the positive factors have been priced in.

“Gold prices have seen a sharp rally this year and all the supportive factors are likely discounted. We may see a correction in gold prices in the second half of calendar year 2025. On the technical side as well, gold prices are in overbought territory as RSI is above 80,” said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory.

According to Kedia, MCX gold rate may rally towards ₹98,500 - 99,000 per 10 grams this year and face resistance at those levels. He expects the yellow metal prices to correct towards ₹78,000 - 80,000 going ahead.

“In the international market, gold prices would have a wide trading range of $2,750 - $3,600 in 2025,” Kedia said.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.