OPEC slashes 2025 global demand growth forecast on Trump tariff-impact: Where is crude oil headed now?

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slashed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the US. It also reduced its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next.

In its monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand will rise by 1.30 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down 150,000 bpd from last month's forecast. OPEC lowered its forecasts for world economic growth this year and next.

OPEC crude oil forecast for 2025

"The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year. However, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook," said OPEC.

OPEC's oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts. It expects oil use to keep rising for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.

Crude oil prices today

Oil prices rose more than one per cent on Monday after the US exclusion of some tariffs, and Chinese data showed a sharp rebound in crude imports in March. Still, gains were capped by concerns that the trade war between the US and China could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.

Brent crude futures rose by 83 cents, or 1.3 per cent, to $65.59 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 81 cents, or 1.3 per cent, at $62.31. US President Donald Trump granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and other electronic goods imported largely from China.

It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses. Trump said on Sunday that he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week.

In March, China's crude oil imports rebounded sharply from the previous two months. According to data shown on Monday, they were up five per cent from a year earlier, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.

Where are crude oil prices headed?

Brent crude futures and the US WTI benchmarks have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month, and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world's two largest economies intensifies.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026. Analysts led by Daan Struyven said that global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 would rise by only 300,000 bpd annually, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.

The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has also flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. Potentially supporting oil prices, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday that the US could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump's plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.