Asian Stocks Show Early Gains Into BOJ, Fed Week: Markets Wrap

Asian shares snapped three days of losses to rise on Monday, before a week of key central bank decisions in Japan, the US and the UK, as well as some big tech earnings releases. 

Stocks rose in Australia, Japan and South Korea while Hong Kong futures edged higher. The upbeat tone came after US equities surged Friday amid bets that looming interest rate cuts will help fuel corporate earnings. US stock futures gained Monday. 

A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar’s strength was steady. Treasuries were little changed.

Focus this week will turn to policy decisions in Japan and the US after global markets were ravaged last week by a rally in the yen on bets the Bank of Japan may hike its key rate. A raft of earnings including Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc and Microsoft Corp. will be parsed following a stock rout sparked by an underwhelming start to the megacaps reporting season. 

“It’s a huge week ahead,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note to clients. Earnings are likely the biggest risk for stock investors as sizable moves on releases “could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote wide-index volatility.” 

The Fed is likely to signal its plans to cut in September at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they say will kick off reductions each quarter through 2025. Money markets are fully pricing a September move, with a chance of two more by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. 

“While the July FOMC meeting is likely too soon to initiate the cut, it is not too early to begin preparations for a rate reduction in September,” Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients.

Just hours before the Fed’s decision, the Bank of Japan is expected to release details of plans to cut monthly bond purchases at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, while most economists also see the risk of a rate hike. The yen climbed 2.4% against the dollar last week as traders priced a more than two-thirds chance of a 10 basis point hike, causing a selloff in risk-sensitive developed and emerging market currencies and helping send the Nikkei 225 Index into a technical correction.

“Pricing in the derivatives market warns that the failure of the BOJ to raise rates could be more destabilizing than a rate hike itself,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, wrote in a note to clients. “The failure to hike rates will likely spark yen sales.”

Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese factory activity data is due this week, providing further insight into a surprise People’s Bank of China rate cut to boost a flailing economy. Australian inflation data will also be keenly awaited as investors and analysts debate whether the nation’s central bank will hike its key rate as early as next week.

Oil rose ahead of a key OPEC meeting this week, with analysts divided over whether the group will proceed with plans to boost supplies next quarter. While the coalition is seeing to restore supplies it’s withheld from the market for two years in a bid to prop up prices, sputtering economic growth in key consumer China, and new oil supplies from across the Americas, threaten to derail the plans. 

Tensions in the Middle East also showed little sign of abating as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested the country could intervene on behalf of Palestinians, possibly with military support. Israel attacked Hezbollah on Sunday and threatened further retaliation for a rocket strike, though signaled an openness to a proposed Gaza truce that could also calm the second and more combustible front with Lebanon. 

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

Currencies

Cryptocurrencies

Bonds

Commodities

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

With assistance from Matthew Burgess.

This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.