Gold price jumps 25% in YTD. Will it hit ₹1 lakh soon or experience a sharp fall?

Gold rates today are on an uptrend due to the economic uncertainty of Trump's tariffs and the renewed fear of a slowdown in the US economy. In the YTD time, MCX gold rate has risen around 25%, whereas it has risen from ₹44,906 per 10 gm to ₹95,239 per 10 gm (from 17 April 2020 to 17 April 2025), recording over 110% rally in the last five years. So, gold investors have amassed multibagger returns on their money. However, when there are significant gains in the short term, the risk involved in holding the position of booking profit also goes up. Gold investors are having their fingers crossed about whether there will be profit-booking in the bullion market as the stock market is getting its mojo back, or if both assets will continue to follow each other.

What's fueling gold rates today?

Speaking on the triggers that may continue to dictate gold prices in the short term, Anuj Gupta, Head — Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, said, "Gold rates today are skyrocketing due to the escalation in trade war and economic uncertainty created by Trump's tariffs. As most economists, including US Fed chairman Jerome Powell, have said, a one per cent tariff hike would lead to a near 0.10 per cent dip in the US economic growth; the market fears a US recession. So, these triggers have fueled the safe-haven demand for gold, which led to a nearly 25% rise in gold prices in YTD and more than 110 per cent rise in the last five years."

Will there be a sharp fall in gold prices?

Anuj Gupta said about the gold price outlook amid the stock market rally, "Triggers that have fueled gold prices still persist, and hence, chances of a sharp fall are very low. Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has improved its gold price target from $3,300 per ounce to $3,700 per troy ounce. In high-risk cases, Goldman Sachs has predicted gold prices to touch $4,500 per ounce. So, bull trend in gold prices is expected to continue, and any dip in the yellow metal should be seen as a buying opportunity."

Can gold prices hit a ₹1 lakh peak in the short term?

On whether gold prices will touch ₹1 lakh in the short term, Navneet Damani, Gout Sr. Vice President of Head Commodity & Currency Research at Motilal Oswal, said, "The outlook for gold price remains constructive. Persistent trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and central bank gold purchases will continue supporting prices. Technical levels indicate strong support for gold at around ₹91,000 and resistance at around ₹99,000 on MCX, while on COMEX, key levels to watch are US$ $3100 and US$ $3400."

Advising gold investors to maintain a 'buy on dips' strategy, Navneet Damani of Motilal Oswal said, "With the global economy navigating through policy uncertainty and slowing growth, gold is likely to remain an attractive asset class. "In an environment dominated by policy uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and volatile geopolitics, gold remains a beacon of stability. As central banks bolster their reserves and investors seek safety, gold will remain a favoured asset. Barring any significant resolution in global trade tensions, we maintain a 'buy on dips' view from a medium to long-term perspective."

Gold price target

“If we go by Goldman Sachs' given targets, if the gold prices touch the $3,700 per ounce year-end target, the MCX gold rates would touch around ₹1 lakh. However, with the $4,500 per ounce target in further escalation in the US-China trade war, the MCX gold rate would touch ₹1.25 lakh. However, one should look at short-term targets, and in the current market scenario, the gold price is ₹91,000 to ₹97,000 per 10 gm range, and the bull trend will continue until there is some breakthrough in the US-China trade deal talks.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.