Indian stock market: 10 key things that changed for market - Gift Nifty, India-Pakistan ceasefire to US-China trade deal

Indian stock market: The domestic equity market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher on Monday amid signs of de-escalation of India-Pakistan tensions after a ceasefire announcement, and optimism over the US-China trade deal.

Asian markets traded higher, while the US stock futures jumped as investors await further details on the trade deal between the US and China.

This week, investors will monitor some key stock market triggers, including the next set of Q4 results, domestic macroeconomic data, retail inflation, India-Pakistan ceasefire updates, flow of foreign capital, and global market cues.

On Friday, the Indian stock market extended losses amid rising tensions between India and Pakistan and as the resulting uncertainty kept investors cautious.

The Sensex declined 880.34 points, or 1.10%, to close at 79,454.47, while the Nifty 50 settled 265.80 points, or 1.10%, lower at 24,008.00.

“Looking ahead, elevated geopolitical risks have significantly heightened market volatility, as reflected in the surge of the India VIX. Investors are advised to adopt a stock-specific approach and refrain from taking aggressive positions until there is more clarity. A hedged strategy is recommended to manage near-term risks, while close monitoring of geopolitical developments will be crucial in shaping the market’s next move,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:

Asian Markets

Asian markets traded higher on Monday amid optimism over the US-China trade deal. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.36%, while the Topix index gained 0.19%. South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.67% while the Kosdaq declined 0.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures pointed to a weaker opening.

Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading around 24,550 level, a premium of nearly 485 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-up start for the Indian stock market indices.

Wall Street

US stock market ended lower on Friday as investors gauged President Donald Trump’s comments on Chinese tariffs ahead of weekend trade talks between the two countries.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 119.07 points, or 0.29%, to 41,249.38, while the S&P 500 fell 4.03 points, or 0.07%, to 5,659.91. The Nasdaq Composite closed flat at 17,928.92. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, the Nasdaq declined 0.27%, and the Dow fell 0.16%.

Tesla share price rallied 4.72%, Intel shares gained 2.00%, while Advanced Micro Devices stock price rose 1.12%. Expedia shares slumped 7.3%.

India-Pakistan War

India and Pakistan have reached a ‘bilateral understanding’ to halt firing and military action on land and in air. Meanwhile, Air Marshal AK Bharti said that Operation Sindoor achieved objectives, and that the results are evident to the world. More than 100 terrorists were killed in nine terror targets during the operation, said the DGMOs.

US-China Trade Talks

The US and China ended trade talks on a positive note, with US officials touting a “deal” to reduce the US trade deficit, while Chinese officials said they had reached “important consensus” and agreed to launch another new economic dialogue forum, Reuters reported. Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said a joint statement would contain “good news for the world.”

Russia-Ukraine War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy said he is hoping for a full and temporary ceasefire with Russia starting Monday, adding he would be in Turkiye to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin “personally.”

US-Iran Talks

Fresh talks between Iranian and US negotiators to resolve disputes over Tehran’s nuclear programme ended in Oman with further negotiations planned, officials said, as Tehran insisted in public on continuing uranium enrichment.

US Dollar

The dollar added 0.4% on the safe haven Japanese yen to reach 145.90, though it was off an early five-week peak of 146.31. The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1224 and the dollar index edged up 0.2% to 100.60. The dollar also dipped 0.2% on the offshore Chinese yuan to 7.2278, and back toward last week’s low of 7.1846.

Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices rose after US-China trade talks lifted market sentiment. Brent crude futures gained 0.17% to $64.02 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $61.19 a barrel, up 0.28%.

Gold Prices

Gold prices slipped as US-China trade talks ended on a positive note. Spot gold fell 1.1% to $3,286.86 an ounce, while US gold futures lost 1.6% to $3,291.60.

(With inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.