₹1,400 to ₹1,600: Brokerages dividend on Reliance share price target but remain bullish on outlook. Time to buy?

Shares of Reliance Industries have been in focus lately after multiple positive brokerage calls in March. The stock has gained 4 percent so far this month, recovering partially from a 5 percent decline in February.

Earlier this year, Reliance Industries' stock had also risen 4 percent in January, marking a reversal after four consecutive months of losses at the end of 2024. The stock had declined 6 percent in December, 3 percent in November, nearly 10 percent in October, and over 2 percent in September 2024. Over the past one year, it has fallen more than 15 percent.

At its current trading price of ₹1,244.40, the stock remains 23 percent below its peak of ₹1,608.95, recorded in July 2024. However, it recently hit a 52-week low of ₹1,156 on March 3, 2025.

Brokerage Views Turn Positive

Reliance Industries has attracted positive ratings from three major brokerages, signaling confidence in the company's growth prospects. Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, and Kotak Institutional Equities have all issued optimistic views, highlighting key catalysts that could drive the stock higher in the coming quarters.

Macquarie: Upgraded to 'Outperform', Target ₹1,500

Macquarie has upgraded Reliance Industries to "outperform" from its previous "neutral" rating and raised its price target to ₹1,500 from ₹1,300, indicating an upside of nearly 20 percent from Friday’s close.

The brokerage cited a series of incremental positives that could play out over the next six to 12 months for the conglomerate. Reliance Industries has underperformed the MSCI India index by 18 percentage points and Bharti Airtel by 60 percentage points over the past year. However, Macquarie believes the company's earnings per share (EPS) CAGR will improve from 2 percent (FY23-FY25) to 15-16 percent (FY25-FY27).

Macquarie identified three key growth catalysts for Reliance Industries: Better earnings momentum, potential listing of Jio, and gradual commissioning of new energy capacities.

Morgan Stanley: 'Overweight' Rating, Target ₹1,606

Morgan Stanley has retained an "overweight" rating on Reliance Industries, setting a price target of ₹1,606, which implies a 28.5 percent upside. The brokerage considers Reliance Industries' valuation and earnings recovery prospects compelling enough to maintain it as a top pick.

According to Morgan Stanley, the company has already begun a multi-stage earnings recovery, following nine months of challenges. The brokerage noted that refining and certain chemical segments have shown early signs of improvement, while Asian chemical multiples have rebounded from their recent lows.

Kotak Institutional Equities: Upgraded to 'Buy', Target ₹1,400

On March 6, Kotak Institutional Equities upgraded Reliance Industries to "buy" from "add", setting a price target of ₹1,400, implying a 12 percent upside.

The brokerage pointed to weakness in the retail segment as a key factor behind the stock’s recent underperformance. However, it expects the store-rationalisation cycle to conclude soon, improving the retail business in the next few quarters.

On Reliance Jio, Kotak remains optimistic about long-term growth, though it acknowledged that delayed tariff hikes could reduce ARPU estimates for FY26 by 2 percent. However, this impact is likely to be partly offset by accelerated broadband subscriber additions, driven by the expansion of Jio AirFiber.

Kotak also highlighted two potential catalysts for Reliance Industries - News flow around a telecom IPO timeline, and another potential tariff hike in the telecom sector.

Despite cutting EBITDA estimates for FY24-FY27 by 1-3 percent, Kotak maintains an earnings CAGR estimate of over 11 percent for the coming years.

Overall, Reliance Industries has witnessed renewed investor interest as brokerages turn bullish on its earnings recovery and future growth catalysts. With expectations of better earnings momentum, a possible Jio listing, and improvements in retail and telecom businesses, analysts see significant upside potential in the stock. The coming months could prove crucial as Reliance navigates its recovery path, with key developments in energy, telecom, and retail segments shaping its performance.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.