Will the COP29 climate summit break the cycle of broken promises?

Every year, just before the annual mega conference of countries to tackle climate change—called the Conference of Parties or COP—held under the aegis of the United Nations, a crucial health check report is released. The Emissions Gap Report, prepared by the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) reviews the pledges of mitigation made by nations, and measures these against meaningful real-world action that ends the reason behind climate change: the emission of planet-heating greenhouse gasses like CO2 and methane due to our economic use of fossil fuels like oil and coal.

The 2024 Emissions Gap Report (EGR), released last week, is pretty sobering to read: nothing is being done, emissions are still rising, when they should be falling, and the gap between our climate targets and reality has widened. As countries prepare for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan (11-22 November), the pressing need to act decisively on climate finance, emissions reduction, and accountability has, therefore, never been bigger.

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The Emissions Gap Report is more than a document of numbers and statistics; it’s a testament to a world struggling to keep up with its promises. According to the latest, we’re on a path to a 2.7 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures (as against pre-industrial levels) by 2100, unless drastic measures are taken. The current global aim is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or lower by 2100. To put it bluntly, this temperature rise spells disaster, especially for nations that have contributed little to the problem but will experience the worst of the consequences—extreme weather events, sea-level rise, droughts, and loss of biodiversity, just to name a few.

An unequal world

The EGR’s findings show that, despite previous commitments, global emissions in 2023 rose to a new high of 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO2e). Atmospheric emissions are at an all-time high, and this sets us on a perilous trajectory, with best-case warming scenarios of 2.6°C this century if drastic changes aren’t made. The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, released on 28 October, has revealed that atmospheric CO2 concentration has reached a whopping 420 parts per million (ppm) in 2023, up 51% from pre-industrial times. The last time the Earth’s atmosphere had such high carbon levels was 3 million years ago.

The impacts of climate change—wildfires, floods, droughts, and heatwaves—are no longer projections but part of the daily reality for millions across the globe. And yet, the biggest historical polluters, primarily wealthy countries, continue to fall short of their financial and emissions reduction promises.

When the 2009 Copenhagen Accord set a goal for developed nations to provide $100 billion per year by 2020 in climate finance to developing countries, it was a critical step toward climate justice. But here we are, four years since that cutoff date, and the promise remains largely unfulfilled. According to the EGR, the finance shortfall has directly hindered countries from making vital strides in both cutting down their own reliance on fossil fuels, and also to adapting to severe climate impacts. This failure doesn’t just hurt the poorest nations; it jeopardises global climate goals.

The finance gap

The core issue lies in the glaring inequality of climate responsibility and finance. The EGR underscores that the G20 nations, which account for around 77% of global carbon emissions, bear the most significant responsibility to reduce emissions rapidly. Yet, many of these countries have yet to fulfill their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and, despite rapid advancements in renewable energy, remain off-track to meet their 2030 targets.

Low-income countries face a cruel paradox. They need urgent financial support to build resilient infrastructure, reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, and prepare for the worsening impacts of climate change. Yet, they continue to receive a fraction of the promised funds. Without the resources to adapt, these nations are forced into an avoidable cycle of environmental degradation, economic instability, and human suffering.

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COP meetings have become an annual cycle of promises, pledges, and, unfortunately, broken commitments. At COP27 and COP28, the loss and damage faced by poorer nations due to climate impacts were finally included in the conversation, but meaningful action remained elusive. This isn’t just a financial oversight; it’s an ethical failure. When countries that have reaped the benefits of industrialisation fail to support those now bearing the cost, they are deepening inequalities and worsening the very crisis they helped create.

The COP29 mandate

The urgent need to close the emissions and finance gaps has never been more urgent. For COP29 to be different, wealthier nations must step up, not only by meeting their finance commitments but also by enacting robust, enforceable policies that close the emissions gap. Beyond funding, developed nations must act at home, adopting policies that reduce emissions substantially and hold fossil fuel companies accountable for their environmental impact.

The landmark 2015 Paris Agreement emphasised the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, reflecting the unequal historical emissions and capabilities of countries. Unfortunately, this principle has too often served as a means to defer responsibility. The time to act, it would seem, is never now. Richer nations must show solidarity with the global community, in the form of financial aid, policy innovation, technology transfer, and a commitment to phase out fossil fuel dependence.

Investing in green

An often-overlooked barrier to climate action is the current financial system, which remains heavily weighted toward high-carbon investments. The EGR points out that transforming this system is essential to fund low-carbon projects effectively. Private investment remains predominantly in fossil fuels, despite the long-term financial risks associated with climate inaction.

For meaningful change, we need a global financial architecture that prioritises and incentivises green investments. This means removing subsidies for fossil fuels, encouraging private sector investments in renewables, and restructuring global debt to allow low-income countries more freedom to invest in climate resilience.

A turning point

We are at a crossroads. We can continue with the status quo—incremental changes, deferred promises, and ineffective policies—or we can recognise the urgency of the situation and commit to a sustainable, equitable future. According to the EGR, if the planet is to keep within 1.5 degrees of warming, current emissions have to come down from 57.1 GtCO2e to 22 GtCO2e in six years, an uphill task currently. But the report also shows that the gap can be easily closed by 2035, using existing technologies and at a cost of less than $200 per ton of GtCO2e. What remains in short supply is the will and ambition to do so.

As we look toward COP29, let’s hope it marks the beginning of a new chapter in the climate crisis, one where nations deliver on their promises, where climate finance is finally prioritised, and where all nations—especially those least responsible for this crisis—have the support they need to build a resilient future.

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