Greenhouse gas levels surge to a record in 2023, warns WMO

New Delhi: Planet-warming greenhouse gas (GHG) levels surged to a record in 2023, with annual mean levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important GHG in the atmosphere, rising by 2.3 parts per million (PPM) between 2022 and 2023, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Monday, calling for urgent action to protect the globe from climate change. This was the twelfth consecutive year when the annual mean carbon dioxide rose by over 2 PPM.

The year 2023 also emerged as the warmest on record, surpassing the 2016-level, with significant implications for global climate patterns and extreme weather events. It was 1.48°C warmer than the average of the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level.

The appeal comes as global leaders prepare to gather for the UN’s climate change conference in Baku next month, amid repeated dire warnings about the human cost of ignoring the existential crisis from UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and others.

Greenhouse gases

Key greenhouse gas-producing events include forest fires and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which leads to warmer weather and reduced rainfall, especially in South Asia, which fuelled drier conditions and a surge in gas concentrations in the latter part of 2023, according to WMO, a specialised agency of the UN whose mandate covers weather, climate and water resources.

Its analysis shows that just under half of the carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere, just over a quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30% are retained on land.

India’s greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1% in 2023, contributing to 8% of the global total but the country’s historical contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions stands at only 3%, a new UN report has revealed on Thursday.

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The WMO report pointed out that from 1990 to 2023, radiative forcing—the warming effect on our climate from greenhouse gases increased by 51.5%. Carbon dioxide accounted for more than 80% of this increase, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index.

The WMO said that given the extremely long life of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, even if emissions reduce rapidly due to net zero targets, the observed temperature levels will persist for several decades.

Natural ecosystems as GHG sources

WMO scientists warned that the rising carbon dioxide concentration and its impact on climate change could cause the natural ecosystems to become sources of greenhouse gases.

“The bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle. Natural climate variability plays a big role in the carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less carbon dioxide,” said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.

“Consequently, more carbon dioxide could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society,” Barrett added.

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WMO also pointed out that climate feedback concerns were not limited to carbon dioxide alone. Methane present in the earth’s atmosphere saw the largest three-year increase between 2020 and 2022. Observations and model simulations pointed to a rise in methane emissions from natural wetlands in response to warmer temperatures and particularly wetter land conditions during the 2020-2022 La Nina conditions.

NDCs can help

Meanwhile, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said in its annual assessment on Monday that the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are enough to cut global emissions by 2.6% from 2019 to 2030, up from 2% last year but they hardly equate the 43% cut that scientists say is required to stay within reach of a Paris Agreement target to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

As part of their Paris obligations, countries must deliver new and stronger NDCs before a deadline in February next year, and the report’s findings should mark a “turning point”, said Simon Stiell, UNFCCC executive secretary.

“Current national climate plans fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country,” he said.

“The last generation of NDCs set the signal for unstoppable change,” added Stiell. “New NDCs next year must outline a clear path to make it happen.”

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