COP29 stresses global financial reforms as world faces spectre of a 1.5°C rise

New Delhi: Agreeing on a new global climate finance goal at the COP29 climate conference will not be enough to rein in toxic emissions, and countries must work harder to reform the global financial system, a top United Nations official said.

“We must agree on a new global climate finance goal. If at least two-thirds of the world’s nations cannot afford to cut emissions quickly, then every nation pays a brutal price,” Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said in his opening remarks at the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) that began today at Baku in Azerbaijan. The summit will conclude on 22 November.

“If nations can’t build resilience into supply chains, the entire global economy will be brought to its knees. No country is immune,” Stiell said.

Also read | Mint Primer: Your two-minute guide to COP29... and dystopia

Mobilising support for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance is a top priority at the climate conferecene. The NCQG will be a replacement for the $100 billion that developed countries were supposed to contribute annually to the climate fund.

“An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every nation, including the largest and wealthiest, but it’s not enough to just agree on a goal. We must work harder to reform the global financial system,” Stiell added.

This year, 2024, is on course to becoming one of the hottest years on record; 2023 was the warmest. In June, the World Meteorological Organisation warned that there was an 80% likelihood that the annual average global temperature would temporarily exceed 1.5-degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years.

Also read | India to pitch for grants and concessional loans, instead of investments, at COP29

The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming by more than 1.5°C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather. 

This year, the world has already witnessed several climate disasters, including heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and flooding, the latest being the floods in Spain. These are bound to intensify in a warmer world, with the added risks of food shortages and disease, scientists have warned.

Mint on Friday reported India plans to leverage its climate commitments to pitch for grants and concessional loans, instead of investments for the Global South, at the climate negotiations in Baku. 

India would like the NCQG to be finalized as a firm commitment by the developed countries, which will help decide the next round of India’s climate pledges as part of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

An Indian team of 19, led by Union minister of state for environment, forest and climate change, Kirti Vardhan Singh, will also push for finalizing the rules for transfer of carbon credits to meet climate targets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, among other matters.

The 1.5°C consequence

As per a UN Emission Gaps report, the planet is on track for a rise of 2.6-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels and may be heading for a rise of 3.1°C, with catastrophic consequences for people and economies.

In 2023, greenhouse gas emissions increased 1.3% year-on-year to 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. To restrict temperature increase to 1.5°C, emissions need to be cut by 42% from 2019 levels by 2030. To limit global warming to below 2°C emissions must fall 28% by 2030.

According to a study published in Nature Climate Change, a 3°C warmer world is expected to result in a 10% loss to global GDP. If this happens, India may lose 5.8% of working hours due to heat, equivalent to 34 million jobs by 2030.

Also read | The ‘transition’ to green energy isn’t reducing carbon emissions 

“We mustn’t let 1.5°C slip out of reach,” Stiell said. “And even as temperatures rise, the implementation of our agreements must claw them back. The shift to clean energy and climate resilience will not be stopped. Our job is to accelerate this and make sure its huge benefits are shared by all countries and all people.”

Clean energy and infrastructure investment is projected to reach $2 dollars in 2024 (almost twice that of fossil fuels). “We must continue to improve the new mechanisms for financial and technical support on loss and damage,” Stiell added.

The ask: $2.4 trillion a year

The climate summit is expected to develop a climate finance deal for countries and communities to transition to clean energy and other low-carbon solutions. 

A massive $2.4 trillion a year—four times what is currently invested—is required for poor and emerging economies to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Countries will also present their third generation of nationally determined contributions. 

These targets form the basis of global efforts to tackle climate change. Both climate finance and NDCs are critical to restricting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Also read | Why climate policies have been unable to reduce the world’s carbon emissions

At COP29, Stiell insisted on the need to have international carbon markets up and running by finalizing Article 6 the Paris Agreement. Article 6 proposes to allow countries to transfer carbon credits earned from reducing greenhouse gas emissions to help one or more nations meet climate targets.

To support countries in creating and communicating their NDCs, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will launch a Climate Plan Campaign. “In parallel, we will re-start Climate Weeks from 2025, aligning them more closely with our process and the outcomes it must deliver,” Stiell said. 

Also read | Don’t overlook the impact of climate change on mental health in India