Delhi airport braces for slower growth in FY28-29, Mumbai expects rebound

New Delhi: Passenger growth at GMR Group-managed Delhi International Airport (DIAL) is expected to slow down over the coming years, due to capacity constraints and emerging competition.

Delhi International Airport expects the slowdown to stem from two factors: the airport nearing its peak capacity and the impending launch of Noida International Airport (NIA) in Jewar, Uttar Pradesh, which is expected to divert some traffic.

“As capacity constraints limit Delhi Airport’s ability to accommodate demand, certain traffic is expected to be spilled over to NIA. The NIA is expected to compete for IGIA’s market share, and it is expected to have more passengers from eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Haryana with lesser travel time to NIA in comparison to Delhi Airport,” said DIAL in its consultation paper.

Delhi Airport projects domestic passenger growth at 5.26% year-on-year in FY26 and 6.72% in FY27. However, the pace is expected to taper to 5.74% in FY28 and 4.63% in FY29.

Similarly, growth in international passengers is pegged at 4.84% in FY26, which is expected to increase to 5.37% as the airport plans to upgrade infrastructure for international flights. However, the growth in international passengers is expected to slow down to 4.70% in FY28 and 3.99% in FY29, according to the Delhi airport's multi-year tariff proposal for fourth control period.

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"The only way to increase the traffic is by increasing capacity which can only be achieved by building a Terminal 4," said Mark Martin, founder & CEO of Martin Consulting.

Meanwhile, Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA), managed by Adani Group, expects a dip in passenger traffic only during FY26 and FY27 by 12.93% and 6.30%, respectively, due to planned renovations of Terminal 1.

A rebound is projected from FY28 onwards, with domestic traffic increasing by 21.36% in FY28 and 1.04% in FY29 and international traffic rising by 4.09% and 14.01% over the same period, according to the Mumbai airport's multi-year tariff proposal for fourth control period.

Unlike Delhi airport, Mumbai is less concerned about competition from its upcoming second airport at Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMI) since it is also managed by Adani Group. By FY30, Mumbai Airport’s capacity is projected at 65 million passengers annually, while Navi Mumbai International Airport's capacity will be about half of that.

Given the strong passenger demand in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), the new airports will thrive on spillover traffic in the beginning, which can be quite substantial, Manish Chheda, managing partner & India CEO at YCP Auctus, told Mint. "Even if the capacities are planned that way, it is more consequential than competing,” he added.

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