Census-2027 reignites delimitation row: ‘BJP plans to reduce Tamil Nadu’s Lok Sabha seats,’ alleges MK Stalin

The Union government has announced the dates of the long-delayed Census. The government said on Wednesday that the Census will be carried out in two phases before 1 March 2027.

This time, the enumerators will collect caste details of residents along with the population numbers. This is happening for the first time since independence.

The annoucement has, however, reopened the debate on deimitation with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government at the centre of planning to reduce Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary seats.

Census Data

The Census data is likely become the base for delimitation, women’s reservation and one nation, one election. 

Stalin, the DMK chief, demanded an answer from the Union government over the timing for conducting a caste census, highlighting the constitutional mandate that delimitation must follow the census after 2026.

"The Indian Constitution mandates that delimitation must follow the first census after 2026. The BJP has now delayed the census to 2027, making their plan clear to reduce Tamil Nadu's Parliamentary representation," Stalin posted on X.

Stalin said that the warnings he issued earlier regarding delimitation are unfolding now. Stalin further attacked All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) General Secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, accusing him of being "complicit in this betrayal" by siding with the BJP.

As per the Ministry of Home Affairs statement on Population Census 2027, the reference date will be March 1. For the Union Territory of Ladakh and the snow-bound areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the reference date will be October 1, 2026. The full schedule will be notified on June 16.

The reference date is actually a cut-off date, as the population of a country is usually declared as of a specific day or date. The official headcount, and the houselisting process precedes this cut-off date. The whole exercise might take up to another three years for the numbers to be finalised and released.

In 2011, the last time the census was conducted, the entire process of houselisting and enumeration was completed before the reference date of March 1, 2011.

Census enumeration and the final report released in the next few months is expected to open the doors for delimitation of Lok Sabha seats. The government has also promised to implement 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament following the delimitation.

‘Fair Delimitation’

Parties in the southern states fear that they will lose representation in Parliament if delimitation is conducted based on population enumeration of the latest Census. They argue that southern states have been able to control their populations better compared to northern states over the years and hence they will get less representation in the Parliament if seats are alloted based on population.

Earlier this year, the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu even passed a resolution opposing Census-based delimitation.

In March, Stalin-led a joint action committee (JAC) comprising the chief ministers of four states and political parties from three others called for a fair delimitation.

The JAC urged the Centre to extend the freeze on the delimitation on parliamentary constituencies by another three decades.

What is the freeze?

During the Emergency (June 25 1975 – March 21, 1977) the Congress government headed by Prime Minister Indira Gandhipassed the 42nd amendment, officially known as The Constitution (Forty-second amendment) Act, 1976.

This meant that the 1971 census was used as the reference point until the first census after 2000. It basically froze the number of Lok Sabha seats until after the first Census taken after 2000.

In 2002, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government extended the freeze for next 25 years until at least 2026. It is this freeze on the number of Lok Sabha seats that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin is urging the Centre to extend for another 30 years.

A 2019 analysis by Milan Vaishnaw and Jamie Hintson of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, projected that a delimitation exercise could see the overall strength of the Lok Sabha rising to 848, with Uttar Pradesh alone seeing its tally increase from the current 80 to 143 by 2026.

In contrast, the analysis said, Tamil Nadu, which currently sends 39 representatives, could see the number rise to just 49. Kerala, which sends 20, would see no change at all. This is precisely the concern raised by states in the south.

Amit Shah's assurance

In February, Union minister Amit Shah assured that no southern state, including Tamil Nadu, will see a reduction in Parliamentary representation due to the delimitation exercise.

“I want to reassure the public of South India that Modi ji has kept your interest in mind to make sure that not even one seat is reduced pro rata,” Amit Shah said addressing a gathering in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu.

“Whatever increase is there, Southern states will get a fair share, there is no reason to doubt this," he said.

The census, due in 2021, was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Census 2027 is slated to be one of the most comprehensive data-gathering exercises undertaken by the Indian government.

Census of India is conducted under the provisions of the Census Act, 1948 and the Census Rules, 1990.

(With ANI inputs)