Heavy rain likely across India till 26 Sep as monsoon withdrawal begins Monday

New Delhi: Heavy rainfall is expected across the country between Sunday and Thursday due to formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal and as the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, delayed this year, begins on Monday from west Rajasthan and Kachchh.

The normal date for monsoon to begin withdrawal from extreme northwest India regions is 17 September, but due to successive weather systems developed in recent days, the monsoon has been active throughout September.

“Likely formation of a low-pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal on Monday and as conditions are favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh from 23 September may bring heavy showers over parts of south peninsular India between Sunday and Tuesday; over central, East and Northeast India from Monday to Thursday,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

Also read | From deficient to deluge: Delhi receives 15% above-normal rainfall since 1 June

A late withdrawal, especially one with active rainy spells till the end, could threaten crops as they begin to mature for harvesting in October and may delay the sowing of rabi crops.

After a below-normal monsoon, India has received abundant rainfall this year. This aided the sowing of kharif crops in August, bringing much-needed relief after low production last year. But excess rainfall in September is a threat to crops before the harvesting season and could potentially reduce the decline in inflation.

Despite a dry start to the southwest monsoon season (June-September), so far, rainfall has been 5% above normal. Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat are among the 12 states that have received ‘excess’ (exceeding the long-period average, or LPA, by 20-59%). However, east and northeast India remain 16% rain deficit since 1 June, data from the IMD showed.

Also read | Mint Explainer: Understanding IMD's September rainfall projection

The weather department noted that La Niña is expected to emerge later this month.

La Niña is expected to continue till the end of 2024. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is another factor that influences the monsoon, is expected to be neutral till the end of the 2024 monsoon season.

La Niña is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures, and occurs every 3-5 years, occasionally in consecutive years, leading to increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns, which can result in floods.

And read | Monsoon update: Impact of uneven rainfall on planting activity